Its been a long hard bear market, it seems that a lot of people are lowkey traumatized by what we have been through now. I personally think that is going to start to get a lot more fun again, very soon.
But what does this mean for our projects?
I personally have posted my theories about cycles many times in the past. When HIVE is cheap, the sub-tokens on HIVE-ENGINE are 'expensive' in HIVE terms, when HIVE is expensive again, they will necessarily be much cheaper, unless they are fully backed by HIVE. And even then, people will want to take profits in dollar terms, so many things that are backed might even trade at a discount.
Are you ready for this? How about your favorite projects?
Somehow I doubt it, even though I have been posting this information online, I get the real sense that not a lot of people are prepared for this.
Does your favorite token have any HIVE backing?
It actually doesn't really need to be specifically HIVE, even some general exposure to the 'crypto markets' would be a good sign. The hardest hit will be projects that are backed by nothing more than an idea.
Deliver on the idea, or your project will fall even further.
Somewhat effected, but not nearly as much as 'idea only' projects, will be projects that are backed by USD based assets, this includes HBD. Yeah HBD is neat and all, but 'stability' in dollar terms does not mean what many people think it means, especially after being traumatized by a two years of bear market.
So let's talk about portfolio positioning a bit. Where should you be? This is all my opinion, and everything will depend on what your goals are, but with that said, let me start.
First of all, HIVE > HBD. You don't want to be 'that guy' sitting on dollars when everything starts to run. Did you buy HIVE at 25 or 30 cents? Maybe you think its too late now at 39 cents. I think you are silly. Under a dollar, under 50 cents even, it doesn't much matter at this point. We are going way higher.
Second - games.
Everybody loves games - gamefi is going to be a new narrative this cycle. Heck, everybody and their brother is making their own game at this point. What should you do?
I like to consider that more mature games further along in their development are going to have a better chance to do well this cycle. There could be some new comers that do well, but I just don't have time to pre-invest in a pre-game at this point. Show me the goods or I'll see you in a few months or years.
Game development takes a lot of time. This is natural - its not the easiest thing to do. So consider that when you put any money into a 'game'.
Next item - Pools
Consider carefully what pairs you want to get involved in. Impermanent gains are real, but if the ratios really get wacky it can be a huge disappointment.
The best headline aprs are not necessarily the best - consider also the volume, where you can be earning money from fees. There has been some crazy volume on some big pools lately, I will let you all guess what that is all about - not trying to out anyone's strategy in particular.
What's the best?
If you are unsure of what you should do, my recommendation continues to be to stick to Hive Power and HP-backed projects. Now is the time to carefully consider your portfolio positionings, a new cycle upwards is just getting started, and yes there will be ups and downs along the way.
If you are interested in several different projects, don't be afraid to dip your toes in too, especially if they are trading at a discount. Focus on projects that have been building through the bear market - and be carefully with builders who are just showing up now to get started.
But who am I kidding? No body has any money left right?
I did this post last week about ARMERO token and managed to sell 3.5 ARMERO tokens - that's 1.05 HIVE's worth! Its nothing personal I am almost certain - just everybody is tapped out and feeling poor.
But do what you can to get into position, consider critically now where you want to be and what you want to have in your wallet when HIVE is worth $3 again.