As I motivate myself to get ready to 'blow the lid' off one of one of the greatest overreaches in the history of using math to predict stuff, Covid, I feel its important to say that Statistical Modelling is BULLSHIT and those that are practicing it WERE TRAINED to know that.
I know because I was trained in Regression Analysis and other forms of statistical inference, and my cohort was explicitly instructed in the weakness of these methods.
Predict the Future? Not enough Variables
If there is anything like a 'Too Long Didn't Read' type summary for my educated position, it would be this:
This isn't a new thing, we didn't just realize suddenly that we are bad at prediction. Models can help us see relationships between variables, but they cannot be mistaken for reality without....losing ones grip on reality.
This is as true for Climate Change as it is for COVID. The same strategy is being employed, which is one of massive FEAR PORN based on weak models, then enormous government overreach.
Climate Lock-Downs are now being suggested. Suddenly coming out of our homes is dangerous....
PCR 'test' is not a test - its a dupe.
Another interesting realm to dive in on is the PCR method of replicating or 'spinning up' small amounts of a molecule into larger amounts of that same molecule.
By setting the replication or 'spin rate' very high (45), the PCR test amplifies background levels of virus to levels that suddenly are declared as 'meaningful'. If you are interested, here is an audio clip with the inventor of the PCR process about how it works.
He was being interviewed because in the 80s and 90s people started to suspect that this process, which was used to amplify and 'look for' the HIV/AIDS in 'high risk people', might be delivering false positives.
'With PCR, if you do it well, you can find almost anything in anybody. It starts making you believe in the Buddhist notion that everything is contained in everything else....there's just very few molecules that you don't have at least one single one of in your entire body'
This is known as a false positive. Having some virus in your body and BEING INFECTED is not the same thing!.
Cumulative Infection Rate, no deaths
When this thing first started, some effort was made to stay in our homes on the idea that we would overwhelm the hospitals with the sick and dying.
They paralyzed sick people to intubate them with forced air ventilators, which appears to be one of the top causes of 'covid death' in these early days. In order to use a ventilator, which was all the rage early but has since disappeared, doctors had to force the patient catatonic so their own lungs would STOP FUNCTIONING, then the machine could do it. This caused lung damage in many patients.
Currently, NO ONE is recommending the use of ventilator for COVID.
But still daily, we hear news of a 'rising infection rate'.
Rising Infection 'Rate'? Wait, what even is that? Think about it, those of you who know about numbers, what does a rate refer to?
This proportional rate is nothing more than the percent of recent 'tests' (which aren't tests) that came back positive!
If we did 10 tests today and one was positive - thats a 10% rate. If tomorrow we test 30 people and 5 are positive, that's a 16.7% 'infection rate'. Of course, for the weak math news reporters, we can clearly and unmeaningfully see that
THE INFECTION RATE HAS INCREASED BY 67% OVERNIGHT!
It doesn't matter that few are dying, few even have symptoms! These 'tests' are MANDATORY for symptomless people that just want to go back to work.
We have literally set our selves up for a statistical shitstorm. And I don't mean to use that phrase lightly. Mandatory testing in healthy populations with a method that produces a high degree of false positives, you don't need statistics to figure out what's going to happen.
If we do not wake up to the fact that we are being buffaloed back into submission and lockdown over a flu season that has already passed.
No matter, second and third wave lockdowns are now resulting from this false understanding of the massive testing that is going on now, how it delivers false positives, and also something about the Nocebo Effect, the flipside of the well known placebo effect.
If you tell people they are sick, they feel sicker. If you wave your stethoscope about and tell them they are healthy, THEY FEEL HEALTHIER!!!!
Once we wake up to this reality, we can start to study what actually happened. Deaths with COVID vs Deaths from COVID I think will be an interesting future study, as the evidence is already clear that there were and still are enormous financial incentives for medical operators to report things as COVID, even if they were unrelated.
Stop visiting doctors that have a financial incentive for you to be sick. I hope the medical field can somehow learn to take this to heart, doctors and nurses wake up because 'just following orders' (known as the Nuremberg Defense) isn't going to cut it anymore.
You are not locked down. You are Essential. You can be Essential.