We finally got confirmation from the airline that our planned getaway trip next month has been cancelled and we will get a refund on the ticket price. There has been no word on the show that we were going to attend in Copenhagen though, and they weren't cheap either. I am guessing it will have to be cancelled, but with only 3 weeks away, they are cutting it pretty slim. While the trip would have been a highly welcomed opportunity to be together just the two of us after 4 years, we could also do with having a little extra in the pocket right about now. I am sure we aren't the only ones.
With things so uncertain, we are looking to consolidate where possible and add some value where possible also. Saving only gets one so far and unless earning a large amount with a very good portion of disposable income, it is unlikely to do much long term - one has to be able to do what the rich do, and make money work for them through investment gains. We haven't had much to invest over the last years since our daughter was born and stupidly didn't make any investments when we did have a small amount before that. In the last 3 years, pretty much the only intentional investments I have made have been into STEEM and a bit into other cryptos, like BTC.
It is a pity the investment there hasn't worked out like planned, but luckily, there is a second grab at the apple on Hive. While I am getting out of Steem, I am going to be pushing into Hive when I can and hope that this will be the hold that STEEM was meant to be. I still believe that this is revolutionary and will fundamentally change the internet and the interactions we have - by distributing large portions of the generated value much more widely than the current processes will ever allow.
But, for those looking to get rich from blogging, although not quite as bad, the chances are still relatively slim to none unless both talented and lucky. In my opinion, it is possible, but if really looking for that long term position, it has to include some external input, some "upfront capital", something many are unwilling to put in.
I saw a post today talking about spineless people cross-posting onto Steem to milk the rewards pool, from someone who hasn't bought Steem at all. That is commendable to have earned it, the problem is that at the same times, they were buying everything else but STEEM. Nothing wrong with that, but it is hard to take seriously someone complain about investors on Steem while they consistently chose not to invest into the community even while they had the possibility.
Skin in the game.
What is interesting is that over the last 2 years of the bear market, there were people investing into Steem even while the price was dropping, because they believed in the potential it had. I myself added about 70K to my account in less than a year and a half, and I know quite a few who have done similar and much more - many of which are the most active and supportive on the platform. These people became core players on Steem, and here they are on Hive, continuing their journey.
The core of Steem is here on Hive and it is quite easy to see by looking over at the trending pages of Steemit.com that they are struggling for engagement. The cross-posts from the core are still probably getting more comments than most of what appears in the Trending pages. What happens to a social media with no engagement?
Engagement matters and should be an indicator of value of the platform, even though it might not be indicative of the quality of every post. It is likely the engagement level of real people that was part of the reason Justin Sun saw value in Steem to begin with and, that is all but dead. Perhaps it will return after the normalization and the die-down of the hype and emotion, but it is going to be interesting to watch, especially if price starts falling due to the power down dumps.
If it doesn't fall, it is going to be even more interesting as with so few community orientated people buying, it will mean that there will likely be again a concentration of power to a very narrow group of accounts, and going on those who were keen to stay there, that group doesn't seem to like roaming far outside their circles. How many users will stay under those conditions, rather than come to Hive where there is engagement and an active core set of users interested in the future?
Price is only one indicator, although it gets the lion's share of attention internally - but when it comes to building a stable platform, it is the community that matters and the community who will ultimately make or break whether the platform survives. There is price support, and there is activity support - with activity being the factor that will stabilize price once the speculation calms.
I think Hive is in a very good position to have a solid user base that can empower the next generations to come, unlike many of those in the first years of Steem, which looked much like the ones who are going to be staked in Steem in the future. While Hive steps forward, Steem seems to be regressing heavily as a social platform.
Then there are the SMTs that could be integrated onto both platforms simultaneously, the problem being, SMTs are only useful when people use them, which means that there has to be an active user base to create the transactions and the communities that will use them. Businesses could use them also of course, but how many will signup to a new technology that no one else is using? Hive has the potential to integrate and be the guinea pig for wider adoption.
And lastly, I will finish with another aspect of the community that people often do not talk that much about, but has been proven often enough. The Hive community in a thousand different ways is passionate and risk-seeking enough that many have chosen uncertainty on a new chain over bowing down to an overlord and slaver on the old. This means that it is also in their best interest to support their new home by earning at the expense of those who burned down the last.
This is actually a win-win, as while people focus on the reward pool, it is actually a very small amount of the total supply that comes out each week. However, if one really wants to back Steem as having a higher future value, they will have the opportunity to buy in heavily at discounted prices from those who might not - in the same way those who have bought into Steem the last two years have done. You want decent stake, you will likely have to buy in heavily, and this is even more the case in a small community with low distribution.
How many will?
While there is a lot of overlap now, as the stake of Steem drains into the value of Hive, I suspect that the communities will drift apart quite rapidly, as will the development tract. At the end of the day, the direction of both platforms is up to the activity or inactivity of the userbase and in my opinion, the most interested and active users that drive innovation and development are those who have skin in the game.
This is the internet and there is money involved.
You better have thick skin.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]