No, there are no precedents for what is happening to us now. Of course, we can go back to anchor points in history. Think about the time, for example, when the Spanish flu in 1918 and 1919 brought more death than in those four terrible war years before. Think about the Second World War and the current unprecedented global mobilization similar to what happened then. However, every comparison falls short. Any historical analogy is misleading. Just to say something. During the four years that Paris was occupied by Nazi soldiers, the cafes, theaters and cabarets remained open. The show went on. Now the boulevards are deserted and the chairs are stacked in front of the windows.
If history offers no answers, there is still fiction. What is happening live before our eyes, we know from the dystopian films that we have been flooded with in recent decades. The pompous speeches of world leaders, the columns of military vehicles entering cities, the empty streets where an echo amplifies every sound, the panic buying at large chains of stores (the leading role for toilet paper had not been foreseen by any writer).
Philosophizing is a luxury if you have to hold the fort. Lying awake at night worrying about the sudden loss of income, structuring the disorganized life of children, dealing with tons of messages from an employer or superior who tries to prove his or her own usefulness by the number of emails that are sent, being locked up between the walls of a much too small apartment. These are just a few examples of the daily reality of many people.
In the first weeks of this crisis, we warm our hearts to the solidarity that exists. From the balcony, we applaud the heroes who risk their lives in the corridors of hospitals where unimaginable scenes take place. Again we learn that caring for each other is one of the deepest instincts of us humans. In every hell, unknown people build paradises. Every disaster seals the bankruptcy of social Darwinism, the evil theory that says that humans are monsters to each other, always and everywhere. Yes, the monsters are certainly there, but they are no different from those before the crisis.
Routine
During a shock like this, everyone tries to stick to the routines and thought patterns that shape our lives. Those are the last beacons of our uncertain existence. They ward off fear. But they are also bad advisors at a time when everything is changing. This changes everything. These words appeared six years ago in black letters against a blue background on the cover of Naomi Klein's book on the climate crisis.
Nothing will ever be as before. Everything that was unthinkable until recently is happening right before our eyes. Decisions are now made in hours or days, without years of in-depth debate. These decisions have consequences not only for the present but also for the future.
Of course, we cling to the hope that this will soon pass. China and a few other countries are proving that the epidemic can be temporarily controlled. But scientists also point out that this could take 18 months. That is the time it takes to develop and market a vaccine. That year and a half will not necessarily look like it did during the lockdown, but it does mean that our societies and our lives will be disrupted for a long time.
We cannot predict exactly how this system might look. We only know that this will cause long-lasting shocks in the capitalist world system. I believe there are a few possible scenarios. Those scenarios are based on past crises, not because conditions are similar, but because they teach us how the 1 percent or elite respond to such shocks.
The way in which governments and central banks respond to the economic consequences of the corona crisis inevitably evokes memories of the 2008 financial crisis. The EU and the US then spent many trillions to calm the stock markets and save the banks. Entire branches of the economy are now being shut down or completely disrupted because the supply of raw materials or parts has come to a halt. We are going into recession in most countries. The risk of depression, a long period of economic decline, is increasing day by day.
The crisis that was always there
You cannot say that the corona crisis interferes with a booming, stable and fair economy. The economic system that gave us the 2008 financial crash was patched, but not reformed. In that system, a crisis always lurks around the corner. One bubble has just exploded or a new one is already appearing to seduce all speculators. Governments and central banks are responding to this crisis as they did in 2008: bail out the companies. Money is being pumped into the economy en masse in the hope that businesses and individuals start lending again. Governments directly give billions to shareholders. CEOs are queuing up at the White House with their hands in the air. The airlines are asking 50 billion. Aircraft maker Boeing alone wants 60 billion. The casinos hope for a check of 18 billion. The hotel sector - yes, the sector in which Trump himself is active - would receive 150 billion.
One of those airlines, American Airlines, has made billions in profit in recent years. That profit was not used as a buffer for difficult times ("I don't think we're ever going to lose money again," said their lunatic CEO in 2017). With those billions, however, they bought back previously issued shares, so it could push up the company's share price; many investors use this standard to measure a company's performance.
Business as usual
That's the scenario that the financial powers hope for. They expect the old recipes to work and that a paralyzed population will soon undergo the savings (which are inevitable in this way). All they want is a business as usual scenario.
However, they do not take a few things into account. First, this crisis is very likely to be deeper than it was 12 years ago. The potential recovery will also follow a much more erratic course. The world's population of 2020 is no longer that of 2008. Last year, a wave of protest swept across the various continents. In Chile, a state of emergency was declared in October after major demonstrations were reeling the government. A demonstrator raised a sign in the air: "Neoliberalism was born in Chile and will die in Chile." In France, there were the Yellow Vests. In Algeria and Sudan, the eternal president was forced to back down. On a certain day, 20 percent of the population of Lebanon was demonstrating. Revolutionary DJs were encouraging them from balconies along the streets. In the US, there is the movement around Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, which itself is the sum of movements such as Occupy, Black Lives Matter and the Women's movement.
Many of the measures that are now being taken come from the list of demands from the left. This is normal because these are measures that must prepare us for the much bigger crisis that is approaching us. An environmental disaster would make our current economic problems pale into insignificance. Now is the time to push through and make maximum demands. As climate journalist David Roberts writes, "the coronavirus is already spinning into a tragedy; it will be a bigger tragedy if we learn nothing from it." Naomi Klein has been warning us for years about the right-wing shock doctrine in times of major crises. Now the time has come for a left-wing shock doctrine.
There are so many great lessons to be learned from this crisis. We have to realize that living in fear of diseases and disruption is the 'normal' condition for half of the world's population. Let us now make a very clear distinction between what is good and what is bad. Don't give the monsters a chance this time.