I don't have a master plan. I don't have a secret trading algorithm. And I certainly don't have any influence on where the red candles stop.
This is—if I’m counting correctly—my third "Crypto Winter." Or maybe we are still just in the Fall? It’s hard to tell when you are in the middle of the storm. Each time I’ve been through this before, the script was similar: doom, gloom, and then, eventually, a bounce back to All-Time Highs.
I have no crystal ball to say if it will happen again this time, but history suggests it probably will. So, like many of you, I simply have to undergo it.
However, this cycle feels different. The walls between "Magic Internet Money" and the "Real World" have crumbled, and our own blockchain is showing some critical vital signs.
The Contagion Effect: When Crypto Catches a Cold...
For the first time, a deep freeze in crypto might actually send shivers through the traditional stock exchanges. In previous cycles, if Bitcoin crashed, it was an isolated event. Now? Major companies hold real crypto on their balance sheets or are heavily exposed through ETFs.
If the crypto market stays depressed:
Corporate Pain: Companies that bet big on digital assets will see their balance sheets bleed.
Forced Selling: To stay healthy, these giants might have to liquidate other assets to cover the holes. This creates a feedback loop where a bad day for Bitcoin could trigger a sell-off in sectors that have nothing to do with blockchain. We are all connected now.
The Hive Reality: The Haircut Paradox
Closer to home, the bear market mechanics are in full swing. If you check your wallet, you’ll see HBD payouts have been replaced by Liquid Hive. The system’s "Haircut" rule is protecting the peg, but it creates a double-edged sword:
The Accumulation: We are stacking liquid governance tokens at historically low prices.
The Pressure: Unlike locked HP or stable HBD, this liquid Hive can be dumped instantly. This adds immediate sell pressure, making it harder for our specific token to find a floor.
The Lines in the Sand (What I Am Watching) While I don't have a trading strategy, I do keep an eye on the health of the chain. Right now, Hive is testing levels that are critical for its future structure.
There are two numbers I am watching closely:
The Hard Support ($0.06): This is the historical floor. We haven't really spent time below this level since the early days after the hard fork (2020). As long as we hold this, the long-term structure remains intact.
The Danger Zone ($0.05): If we break below this, things get complicated for the HBD debt ratio. This is the zone where the system stress-tests itself. Also this will have an impact on the numbers of witness who will keep their nodes running or not.
My "Strategy" (Or Lack Thereof)
So, what do I do? I can't control the Fed, I can't control the ETFs, and I can't control the price holding $0.06. I can only control my own timescale.
I’ve survived the previous winters by simply sticking around when others left. (Not only for Hive but for all my crypto holdings in general) The "tourists" are gone. The noise is low. And while I don't know if this is the bottom, I know that these are the quiet periods where the next cycle is born.
I’m just here to undergo the season, stack the liquid payouts, and wait for the sun to come back out.
My other crypto holdings will just be kept in the wallets. When we do come close to ATM again, I will do like I always did, bring back some crypto to real live, to make real life a little bit easier.
Don't let the market ruin your weekend! It will bounce back, we only just don't know when.
Cheers,
Peter