Oil Supply Chain
Suddenly everyone is interested how much traffic is going through the Persian Gulf, and to where. Also who has how much supply left! Sigh. You are reading too much news, eh? And you didn't see it coming? If you are reading news, this escalation was public information for months. Anyways, since you are interested I will provide some facts, and keep in light on opinion and interpretation.
Below is the current commercial ocean bound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah! if you read the news, you will feel it is empty!
Yes, although it doesn't look empty, but there is little traffic going through the strait. Most of the tankers are stationary, as they don't want to take risk, just like you are thinking. It is only 5th day of the war, and potentially US navy can escort tankers through the strait when the time is right. Note, that Iranian Navy is mostly destroyed.
Air Traffic
Both Doha and Dubai airport remains mostly closed till March 07, as per emirates website. That is a much bigger deal in my opinion. You can see what is happening to commercial traffic in the live flight radar below.
I use both DXB and DOH extensively for travel, and I am sad to see they are closed. However, some commercial flights are trickling out of there. I have three colleagues currently stuck in DXB and one in DOH. Two of my colleagues got out of DXB 1 hr before the closure on Saturday. I'd say West to East international travel over middle east is heavily impacted. DXB and DOH are two of my personal favorite airports for the record.
Okay, who has how much?
Let me write this in bullets, the data is from Kpler, which tracks global supply chain for oil and gas.
- China 115 days
- Japan 254 days
- South Korea 210 days
- Taiwan 120 days
China does have significant domestic production, and it also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan and are shielded from Middle East disruptions. So I don't see China is in any kind of serious pressure. The other three doesn't have any meaningful production, but as you can see they all have at least 3 months of reserve.
So unless you expect this conflict to last 3-4 months, I don't see any reason to worry about the oil supply chain to major consumers in Asia.
And, if that happens, the escort option is always available.
Cheers!
Consider reading the news a bit less for your personal mental health. I know I am doing the same. Lot of these events are beyond your control and there is nothing much you can do other than worry. Even you worry to death, nothing is going to change. That is the fact.
