While ETH hit an ATH tonight, I think back to how much I had when it was around 80 and how I sold much, much, much lower. Same with BTC. Much lower. While I have almost zero ETH, I do have a little BTC still - but even if it quadruples from here, I won't be able to retire. I kind of feel like I have given up on getting "rich" from crypto and instead will be happy if I can just make it through life remaining solvent. The economic landscape can change so fast these days, very few are "safe" from the potential volatility.
I took this picture in Estonia.
Do you see the raging bull too?
Volatility. I am no expert on all the situations happening in the world, but I do feel we are in unprecedented waters, at least at the scale of what we are seeing them. There is of course the ongoing shambles that is the geopolitical situation, spearheaded by the mess that is the US government, as well as the increasing risk of conflict in a number of key locations. Then there is the changing climate which regardless of whether it is man-made or natural, is going to put increasing pressure on us through weather changes, farming and water supply. Then there is the march of encroachment from AI and automation which is going to see more jobs lost than created in the coming decade.
Are you sure your job is safe?
Really sure?
There is a person in my extended family who is a fool. They always believe they are right, but history doesn't treat their predictions kindly. The things they have said.
- The internet is a fad (1996)
- Digital cameras will never be good enough to replace film (2002)
- Bitcoin is a scam that will never have value (2017)
- Electric cars will never be mainstream (2018)
As you can see, I should have bet against them on everything they have said. And when it comes to AI, they predicted that it will never be good enough to replace people in the workplace. This was prior to ChatGPT coming out. And while AI doesn't replace the need for people completely yet, it is marching steadily to consume a higher percentage of human work.
Are you really sure your job is safe?
Whether your job is safe or not, many, many jobs will not be safe and will be lost, with most people affected directly unable to get work. But, indirectly, we are all affected when a large number can't get work, whether we are in work or not, because the economy is set up for the majority to be working. All of the healthcare and retirement funds, as well as all the government services that rely on tax are all affected. We haven't created an economic system that survives mass unemployment, and our society will not cope either. Maybe those who can afford to live on a self-sufficient island will be okay.
As long as it has high enough ground and can withstand weather extremes.
Perhaps I am too pessimistic on the future. But I feel that the majority of people are not pessimistic enough. It is like they are building castles in the sky and do not see the reality that it is not going to happen. I might be very wrong on this and hope that I am, but under the current conditions, I don't see a lot of positives for the society as a whole, even if there is strong economic recovery.
In the past, a strong economy meant that the majority of people had enough, but now, that is not the case. A strong economy can be achieved with a few companies doing very well, even if the majority of people are destitute. We should stop equating the state of the economy to the state of society, because they have been decoupled long ago. GDP is meaningless for the community, so we should question it when it is used as a metric for how well "we" are doing.
We are society. Corporations are entities.
Entities that should be working for us, not using us.
I believe that the way the current economy is fashioned, we are all in for a lot of volatility that we are not prepared to receive. As an individual, we can't predict how we are going to be impacted by millions of events that range in size from micro moves to macro shifts at the global scale. We think we will be okay, based on our pasts, but our pasts were a different kind of animal than the future we face.
This volatility is going to come in many forms, but we are increasingly looking at our problems as if they live in a vacuum, which is not the case. There are interdependencies and a wide range of interactions that are going to create a massive shift in everything that is important in our lives, whether it be the education of children, or the treatment of addicts, or the fallout from a large amount of structurally unemployed, or the aging populations, or the failing retirement mechanisms, or the decreasing level of mental health - plus a myriad other issues.
Volatility.
If Bitcoin, Eth, Hive or whatever else coin goes past the moon, past the planets, and reaches the sun, is it enough to keep you safe? Or, is it a bull in the sky that will blow away in the breeze?
Taraz
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