In today's post and trading idea, I will share an analysis I made about $BTC. This is regarding the 4 yearly cycle.
The charts below were obtained using BITSTAMP BTC/USD chart and Heiken Ashi Candles on a Weekly timeframe
Notes:
To be considered a cycle,
• Higher than the previous cycle
• Retraced to 0.618 and below: This qualifies to hunting the start of new upcoming cycle.
Even if it hits retraces first to 0.618 but it didn’t shoot high above the previous cycle, then we don’t consider the last cycle as terminated./completed.
If it goes past the all-time high and retraces but didn’t hit 0.618 at minimum, then the cycle is still on.
The Fib numbers to buy are
- 0.618
- 0.65
- 0.786
- 0.886
this is for SPOT BUYING and it is meant to be a HODL strategy.
Now
THE FIRST CYCLE(LINE 2:In the table above)
This retraced to 0.618 and 0.65 Fib, but it didnt retrace to 0.786 and 0.886 Fib. An average buy at the Fib 0.618 and 0.65 is 7.435 USD. All time high was 259.71 USD (08 April 2013). Nice profit :)
THE SECOND CYCLE(LINE 3:In the table above)
This retraced to 0.618, 0.65 and 0.786 Fib, but it didnt retrace to 0.886 Fib. An average buy at the Fib 0.618, 0.65, 0.786 is 86.63 USD. All time high was 1163 USD (25 Nov 2013). Sweet :)
THE THIRD CYCLE(LINE 4:In the table above)
This retraced to 0.618, 0.65, 0.786, and 0.886 Fib. An average buy at the Fib 0.618, 0.65, 0.786 and 0.886 is 342.28 USD. The all time high was 19733 USD (11 Dec 2017). Excellent profit.Hahahaha.
THE FOURTH CYCLE
This is what we are all waiting for. Now, following the analogy and technical idea in the previous cycles, we can see that a buy at the Fib 0.618, 0.65, 0.786 will give an average buy of 6351.22 USD.
Whereas if we have a buy at Fib 0.618, 0.65,0.786 and 0.886 level, then an average buy will be 5361.2 USD.
Therefore, as an investor and a long hodl individual, our average buy entry targetting the end of the Fourth cycle should be either 6351.22 or 5361.2 USD.
This is worth the target of hundreds of thousands USD.
My recommendation:
After getting your average entry, always sell your capital (or plus some gains) at 0.382 or 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the same retracement that you bought at 0.618, (i.e.: from your Average entry). Leave the rest to multiply.
Summary
In another word, the Fibonacci retracement of the last cycle that has numbers from 0 to 1, buy at its 0.618 to 0.886 and sell to cover your average entry and some profit at 0.316 or 0.236.
Be ready to have some serious patience.
Kindly, inform your next of kin, you don’t want to hide wealth if you are no more ☹.
ND: Not determined
ATH: All time high
©Turpsy March14, 2020