Making money with HELIOS

I will say it plainly.

I am bullish on HIVE

and that is not something that I typically say about any asset on HIVE. I've watched HIVE tokens tank. I often wonder how long HBD will keep its value before the haircut rule takes effect. Some tokens are valuable but many aren't worth the ink they were printed with.

I'm bullish not because I buy and pray. I'm bullish because I watch the buyers, the sellers, the bots and the whales. It isn't an unknown quantity, it is a game to play with money for the winner.

HELIOS has been a standout and for two reasons:

It has a limited supply and
It has an actual, useful, use case scenario.

That matters

Limited supply matters. Knowing that there are limited tokens out there and knowing who holds what tokens can give me a sense of just how many players are in the game and how much sell pressure can be put on my buy positions.

An actual use case for the token is even more useful. With the burn for upvote dynamic HELIOS can be converted to value little by little either for an author or for those you wish to curate. True, it isn't a blanket burn 2 earn and someone has to make decent, useful content or get blacklisted by HELIOS but that makes sense to me. HELIOS can also be burnt for new HIVE username creation. BOTH of those use cases are useful for a community curator! Right now the Great Little Dragon community can call in a curator to provide similar to that of #Hive Learners which has a much much MUCH larger userbase. Sure it costs me money but it is still possible.

But there is another reason I'm bullish

The other reason I'm bullish is because with hive-engine and HIVE there are analytics available that helps me see the other players in the game.

Hive Engine.

The Hive engine is the most important place to look. Just take a quick look at the recent order book for HELIOS.

Notice how many "sell" orders there are? Notice that there are none? Every order is a BUY.

Now that there are no more tokens being created and distribution has tapered down to just a trickle there are very few sellers and those who are selling are putting it onto the sell wall at higher prices. No one is dumping onto the buy wall.

Looking a little further? Take a close look at this line.

1.19000000 63.000 74.970000 829.08415

Doesn't look like much when I copy and paste. Here is my read on it though. For HELIOS to double in price? To go from 0.6 to 1.2? would require purchasing 829 HIVE worth of HELIOS. $50 HBD

Now lets look at that with a fun little example:

Hive account@hiveabbyftp holds about 10,000 HELIOS tokens. Current value? 10,000 x 0.6 x 0.06 -->

$360 HBD

How about if I was to purchase $50 worth of HELIOS? Those same HELIOS would be worth 10,000 x 1.19 x 0.06 -->

$714 HBD

But of course cornering the market on HELIOS isn't quite that easy. It is important to know the other players in the game. Luckily the buy and sell list tells me exactly that.

First: Hive account@offgridlife and Hive account@tergan were the active buyers. Hive account@tergan is the asset holder for the Great Little Dragons community so basically an arms length buyers. Hive account@offgridlife is just a smart holder.

Second: Hive account@helios.savings, Hive account@sprizzy, Hive account@jetbrains, Hive account@honusurf, and Hive account@pob.macro are the active sellers. This is where checking out those accounts come in handy.

Hive account@sprizzy has a reputation of 25 and no posts : That screams bot.
Hive account@jetbrains is in the same situation.
Hive account@pob.macro does have posts but nothing since 2021 : Either bot or inactive account on autopilot
Hive account@honusurf had a lot of followers and followed but nothing posted since 2023.

and Hive account@helios.savings only has a limited treasury so it is unlikely to dump all its coins as it seems purpose built to support the coin value.

Yes there are whales would could really wipout the HELIOS price but at the moment it doesn't seem that they are in play.

Chasing higher valuation is usually pointless if there are no buyers

Now, while I can manipulate the price of the coin by buying out the SELL wall and providing resistance on the BUY wall (placing BUY orders) that still runs into one issue. There is only one buyer Hive account@offgridlife so even if I hold 10,000 HELIOS and the value skyrockets...that doesn't mean that I can sell for a profit if there are no buyers! Hive account@offgridlife e IS buying but its only one buyer who could buy a lot of my 10,000 HELIOS but is kind of unlikely to.

So while I could have a paper growth from $360 to $716 unless there are many buyers then I' not going to get that value out.

Except: HELIOS has a second way to get your cash.

Feel the burn

HELIOS coin can be burnt for upvotes and the higher the value goes the fewer coins are needed. If I bought out all the "cheap" vendors and the price skyrocketed to 1.19? Far fewer HELIOS would be required for a large upvote. Indeed if I only burnt those 10,000 HELIOS ... 10 HELIOS at a a time? I would likely get $1000 return on those tokens instead of the $320 I originally paid for them.

Overall a 3x increase without any pumping and dumping.

Just by knowing who the players are, how the bots work, and how the burn mechanics work.

Am I bullish? Absolutely. And it will be fun to see what happens to the coin in the future :)

Putting the bots to work

One nice thing about the bots is that they are predictable. With the Hive account@tergan account I made a play to increase the value of the token today. I bought out all the coin at the 0.63 and 0.69 price point. That allowed the coin to soar to 0.899. A 30% increase (roughly). Then I left a buy order at 0.800 ... Did I want to pay 0.800? Not really.

However, I knew what the bots would do. They would outbid me on the buy wall and they would undercut me on the sell wall. It is just their nature. Once the bots placed support on the buy wall I could remove my order and there was still support for the higher value :)

In the meantime? I'll watch the 0.899 peg. I'll buy the bots who are a little lower so I have a supply or coins rather than spend my own. I'll burn tokens to get a war chest and when I have enough I'll buy up coins to make the next burst to the 1.19 support level.

But there are whales out there.

However, whales do exist and could throw off everything. However, supposing they DID sell a bunch of coin. Either they sell small amounts to get a high return. If they do I just place a small sell order at a low price. Wait for the bot's to beat that price and make some cheap purchases ;)

If the whales really dump to insanely low prices? Buy opportunity! Terrible time to burn but great to buy if coins hit the 0.15 levels again :)

And here is the reason:

HELIOS doesn't rely on price point to make money. It has value in the burn. There is limited supply and as the supply dries up price increases are both organic for those who want to do the burn and can be engineered by eating up the little liquidity that is actually available.

I'm bullish for a reason.

Yes. I could get burned. Yes whales could eat up my investment. Yes, I could lose hard if the Hive account@helios.voter and the burn mechanic is suspended.

But honestly? There is never anything guaranteed on Hive. HELIOS just happens to be one that I can see who owns what, see who is buying what, and there are few enough tokens left that I'm not worried about whales sinking the ship.

In short, I see enough upside and I can see the potential issues that I'll take the risk.

and watching the hive-engine, watching individual wallets, and watching the richlist makes things a lot more transparent so I'm less likely to be blindsided.

and that's it for this post. I'd love to get ideas on whether you are bullish or not and why. If not comments which is the norm for my posts? Well, if you made it this far I'm still happy for eyes on post.

Thanks for reading.

Day 33: Knowing who the players are