Today while watching the news of our president saying that we won the war in the first hour but we need to finish the job twelve days later and at the same time seeing images of the burning tankers and watching oil shoot up again I had a distinct feeling that markets are not pricing in this war.
We have Bitcoin sitting around seventy thousand and stock market just under all time highs. This just doesn't look great, markets are priced for perfection and sure when I watch Fox News it is all going perfectly, too perfectly for a major war...
Sure we have air superiority and can strike them at will, but that doesn't do anything to change the government in Iran and today the message from the Supreme leader was stating that they are going to continue blocking the strait of Hormuz and they are...
The area where tankers pass is very narrow and tankers are giant slow moving targets that are very easy to hit. They can hit them in a very predefined location that is reachable not only by missiles and drones, but even conventional artillery.
That is going to be very difficult to defend without doing a major ground operation. And ground operation means even more resources and American casualties. They are hitting ships at will after we spent almost sixty billion dollars on bombing them.
It sure starting to sound like things are not going according to plan. It seems like the plan was a quick victory and regime change, but that is not looking very likely without a major ground campaign.
Higher oil prices usually mean higher inflation and lower stock prices. We are way overdue for a bear market in stock market. And if inflation picks up the Fed is not going to cut rates which will set up one really bad recession.
If that happens the risk on assets like crypto and bitcoin are not going to hold up well at all and we can easily see Bitcoin at the next major support levels of fifty eight thousand or even lower.
It looks like the markets are mainly driven by automated trading that is basically following technical analysis signals and are completely oblivious to what is going on in the world.
If that is true, then when things finally break in the stock market it will get really bad. The same automated trading is going to follow technical signals on the way down and is going to make sure that the correction is going to play out fully.
I think that right now it is time to make sure that we have cash ready to invest at much lower levels. It feels like we are going to have an opportunity to buy Bitcoin, crypto and stocks at much lower levels in the near future...
Splinterlands is changing the Survival format once again and the proposal is to switch from SPS to Glint in Survival. I understand that they need time to tweak the new Survival system, but switching to Glint makes it completely not interesting to me.
In fact Brawls and Wild / Modern Ranked are the only modes that seem worth playing as Frontier and now Survival are no longer attractive.
Hopefully Splinterlands is making preparations to last through a serious bear market for the next year or two...
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