Yesterday, we had one of those odd days we have rarely had in over 20 years. It is a weird mixture of joy, hope, skepticism, and indifference. Every time the opposition to the chavista regime “wins” some election we can’t help going back to previous “victories” and the subsequent uselessness of them. It takes us back to the basics: since the regime is not democratic; since it controls all the powers (Legislative, Judicial, and Electoral); since it is not only totalitarian but also run by criminals, for as long as the president is chavista and their military and paramilitary apparatus is intact, there is not much to celebrate in winning a regional election.
How pathetic can a politician be to accept a nomination to a regional election in a state he has never lived and whose people and problems he does not know; his only qualifications being having married once the daughter of late President chavez, whose portrait he has to brandish as a sword that is supposed to do the dirty work for him?
Background of the Barinas Election
The Latin American left's critique of empires/monarquies is just envy. They tend to end up perfecting the model they demonize so much.
The Challenger
Freddy Superlano was a young congressman elected in 2015 (for the 2016-2021 term).
In 2017 he ran for governor against Argenis Chavez. He lost, but protested the results.
In 2018 he was appointed president of the comptroller commission that investigated to connection between Alex Saab and some oppostion congresspeople. Time prooved investigators right and a faction of the opposition split evidencing a bribing ring that demoralized the whole opposition movement.
On 23 of February 2019 Superlano and his cousin Carlos José Salinas were part of a commission in charge of processing humanitarian aid from Colombia. However, they ended up in a brothel where they were poisoned. Superlano survived, but his cousin died. This scandal also debilitated the opposition and undermined people's trust.
Round 1 (Nov 21st)
Who does the government pick for the recent election? Argenis chávez, of course. Adán's atrocious 8-year tenure was not enough. Argenis' lack of charisma and lousy term was not a problem either. He was supposed to guarantee that "the land where the revolution was born" (as chavistas like to put it) would remain under their control.
Who does the opposition choose to represent them in the 2021 elections? Freddy Superlano, of course. The brothel/poisoning/humanitarian aid corruption scandal was put aside.
It was a close call and a week later the electoral authority had not given the final bulletin. It was obvious that Superlano had surprisingly won. Then, another Superlano (allegedly unrelated to Freddy) enters left stage and introduces an appeal against the winning candidate. He had been under investigation, but had been pardoned by maduro. Never mind that. The court ruled that Freddy could not be elected because he was not supposed to have run for office in the first place.
You may wonder how on earth was this guy allowed to register as candidate if there was an administrative investigation against him?
That's part of the chavista game.
The counting was suspended. The elections had to be repeated.
Round 2 (Jan 9th)
Who does the opposition pick to substitute Freddy Superlano? Aurora Silva de Superlano, his wife. A woman with zero political background. This is the new Venezuelan way of conducting politics (the chavistas have been doing it for 20 years; the opposition criticize them for that until they do it too).
Luckily, a court ruled that Silva could not run (they never explained why; they don't have to). That's how Sergio Garrido climbs up the ladder. At least this guy is from Barinas and had occupied different posts.
To the government's chagrin, Argenis chavez declined to participate in the re-run and that opened the gate for a local chavista to run for office, you may think; the left boasts about supporting the grassroots. Bullshit, they called Jorge Arreaza, an outsider; the least charismatic candidate possible, Minister of Foreign Affairs. It was as if the government (now we can say the maduristas) actually wanted to surrender Barinas (maduro and the heirs of chavez have historical differences).
The New Governor
In this picture you can identified the newly-elected governor (former councilman, could not be happier; to the left the one who will probably rule since he was the original winner before the elections were annulled; to the right the representative of the ones who will accomodate and negociate posts and policies).
Can this be the beginning of the end of the red pest? Yes, but only if a lot of things happen, quickly and simultaneously. The reaction cannot be isolated and subject to electoral agendas. Back in 2015, people thought they had reasons to celebrate. They opposition parties had won the majority in congress. A few days later, the maduro regime started a series of dirty strategies to block the new congress and since then Venezuela has been a chaotic political scenario that most people does not understand, even here.
In a twit before the official results were announced, officialist candidate, Jorge Alberto Arreaza Montserrat, recognized that the objective had not been achieved, but added,
*"Seguiremos protegiendo al pueblo barinés desde todos los espacios."
( We will continue protecting the people of Barinas from every angle).
That phrase, coming from anyone else, someplace else, might sound reassuring, but coming from a chavista in Venezuela it only means trouble. It means that regardless of their having lost the state, they will continue ruling that territory. They could not care less about the people of Barinas; it was pathetically evidenced during the short campaign. Arreaza himself had to admit in every place he visited (as if he were referring to rulers from other parties or from the empire itself) that the state was in utter neglect; that they had been abandoned, and that he (all of people) would do what the previous governors (his party buddies and step-relatives) had not done.
It will be just a matter of months (probably less) in order for the world to see what chavistas can do when the lose any territory. It happened with Antonio Ledezma in Caracas and it has happened with every single opposition governor in the last 10 years (Nueva Esparta, Táchira, Merida, Zulia). They are either strangled financially and institutionally so that they can’t do shit, or else they simply impose a “Potector” who, under the excuse that the oppositionist refuses to collaborate and work and-in-hand with the government, will rule with all the money and faculties of the elected official.
In the meantime, the chavez dynasty has ended in Barinas, hopefully his whole legacy of ruin, mediocracy, populism, corruption, vulgarity, and state terrorism will also end soon.