I just came back home to Mexico City, and was inspired to write a #MarketFriday post (on a Saturday of course - go figure!), hosted by 
What Do Campervans and Tiny Homes Have To Do With Fruits and Veggies?
What a question! Rapidly rising prices, of course. Like duh! Interestingly, however, certain goods tend to change more than others. In fact, in the three months that I've been gone I noticed some insane changes... And yes, certain things even got radically cheaper! In other words, there must be reasons for these fluctuations other than the ones being repeated ad nauseam. To provide some examples, I decided to look at two products that are almost stereotypical in being truly Mexican: Limes and Avocados. So nobody can use the "strawberries in January" import argument. To examine these two Mexican fruits I visited our local Mercado El Chorrito, only a five minute walk away from where I live.
El Chorrito is a typical example of a market in the middle of Mexico City: It has its share of produce vendors with a pretty diverse selection of fruits and vegetables. There are also about as many butcher shops, bakeries, as well as little "corner store" type tienditas, where you can buy just about anything from flour, coffee, sour cream, to napkins, candles, and greeting cards. It has its own section of eateries with a generously diverse offers, all at decent prices. In fact, my wife and I like to come here just to eat. But today I had a very specific mission:
Half a Kilo Limes, Half a Kilo Avocados.
Though the #MarketFriday challenge talks about $10 USD and what you can buy for it, I was not going to do a bigger shopping run this time. At the current exchange rate, that would be 195 pesos, and I'm sure that would go quite far, especially if you pick the less expensive things. But our fridge is pretty well stocked at the moment, and the two items in question tend to be the usual suspects when people talk about price hikes... in spite of being very wonderfully Mexican.
Before I left Mexico in early March, the price of limes was soaring around 120 pesos for a kilo. (That equals almost three dollars for a pound!) Back then this was an outrage, since the regular price for limes had been about 20 pesos for a kilo (around 45 US cents a pound). Today I got my limes again at a decent price, "only" 30 pesos / kg = $0.67 / lb).
With the avocados my surprise was the opposite: Today I paid 140 pesos for a kilo, or rather 70 pesos for three avocados, weighing about half a kilo. (That equals close to $3.20 USD for a pound, for all of you still thinking in imperial units.) This is an all-time-high, and the vendor was convinced that the price would keep going up further still. Okay, maybe he just wanted to convince me to buy more! Just to compare, last year I remember getting a kilo of avocados for 50 pesos, which is around the same price it had for years, as far as I can remember. ($1.10 USD / pound) Naturally, I was already quite outraged in March, when a kilo avocados surpassed the 100 pesos mark. Compared to today, that seems like a bargain...
What's Going ON???
At this point I should provide some explanation, though I'm afraid the only thing I can offer is a bit of speculation. I'm sure, no matter which part of this world you're reading this in, you can relate to price increases of these two fruits. Also, I am certain, if you ask about the reason for this sudden price hike, you'll be told some stories about supply chain issues due to Covid, or more recently gas prices having to do with Russia and Ukraine. And what can you do? Shake your head about it, fork over the money, or else just forget about making guacamole.
But here in Mexico neither argument flies very well. Even during the height of the Covid craze, lockdowns were mostly just recommended, and especially in the largely informal economy of food stuffs life kept on going as always... The alternative would have been starvation, which even the authorities were aware of, so the restrictions were mostly nominal. Also the other reason regarding gas prices is pretty weak in a country like Mexico, with a massive petro-chemical industry. It is not just crude oil that is being produced in large quantities in this country, but everything from natural gas, to refined stuff like kerosene. (BTW, the same thing is true about the United States, just saying.) So the war in Ukraine, and the accompanying sanctions on Russian oil, should not really affect a place like Mexico (or the States), at least not at the rate we're being told.
Okay, So What IS The Real Reason?
As I said, I can only theorize, using the info I collect from various conversations, and my own reasoning. In a nutshell, I'd say it's simply Gangsta Biz that's going on, no more, no less. You may have heard that Mexico has a powerful cartel class of organized crime groups. They are commonly referred to as narcos referring to the drug trade they made most of their money with, specifically cannabis smuggled into the United States. At the same time you may be aware that over the last decade there has been a widespread legalization of this herb in many US States, not just for medicinal but recreational purposes. In fact, there is a chance the legalization may reach the national level soon. Since domestically grown American weed is of a much better quality than the garbage-compacted dirt weed from Mexico, you can see how Mexican cartels won't be able to make the killing with it that they used to.
Since it's in the interest of any business, even illegal ones, to diversify and stand on many legs, it's understandable that they would move into other areas. Not just other types of drugs, but prostitution, kidnappings, extortion, weapons, ... and yes, the seemingly harmless limes and avocados! Again, don't quote me on this, since I can't substantiate any of these claims. At the same time, I can't find any other reasonable way to explain how a benign fruit like limes could jump to six times its original price in only a couple of months, only to come back to "just above normal" in another few months.
There Are Gangsters Everywhere
Oh dear, poor Mexico! many of you would probably say, and rightfully so. However, the take-home message I would like to leave with is this: Mexico is not the only country run by criminals! Over the last three months I had a chance to observe a very similar trend with gas prices in the United States, as always, accompanied by the usual explanation of global gas prices. And you know what? I don't even think it's a lie! What is conveniently left out, is that the guys behind these price hikes may have gotten together and exchanged a knowing wink, or something like that. Once again, I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about, just thinking aloud here. And whether this wink took place after or before the war broke out, is a whole nother speculation. One thing, however, I am pretty sure about, is this: I wouldn't put it past them, in the same way that it makes sense to me that organized crime groups would take advantage of driving the price of one of the most common and basic commodities up beyond the level of affordability for many Mexicans. So go ahead and draw your own conclusions. As for me, I'll appreciate the not so expensive limes, and hope the price of avocados will soon come down as well.