MEMO: Things Nobody Is Watching
TO: Anyone paying attention
FROM: —
RE: Beijing, Wednesday. The clock nobody reset.
DATE: 12 May 2026
Trump lands in Beijing in forty-eight hours and the financial press is writing about optics.
The photo op. Whether Xi stages another Forbidden City dinner or keeps it clinical and Great Hall. Whether the communiqué uses the word "constructive." Whether the handshake looks warm. Meanwhile, buried in the working-level logistics of a summit that almost didn't happen — delayed two months because the U.S. and Israel were busy lighting the Persian Gulf on fire — is the actual question that will determine the shape of the next decade of semiconductor manufacturing, defense production, and the entire AI capital stack.
The Busan deal expires in November.
If you haven't been tracking this: in October 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced sweeping export controls covering gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, seven medium and heavy rare earth elements — samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium — plus magnets, alloys, and, in a move of genuine structural audacity, downstream products manufactured outside China using Chinese-origin materials. Beijing essentially said: it doesn't matter where you process it. If the ore was ours, we still own the decision.
A month later, at the Busan APEC meeting, the two sides negotiated a suspension. General licenses. Flows resumed. The semiconductor fabs exhaled. Defense primes quietly restocked. And then everyone went back to arguing about tariffs.
The suspension expires November 10, 2026. That's 182 days from today.
Here's what makes Beijing this week so layered it should make your head hurt.
Trump is going to ask Xi to help end the war. Iran's foreign minister was in Beijing last week — Abbas Araghchi, meeting Wang Yi — and the White House has convinced itself this signals Chinese leverage it can extract. Treasury Secretary Bessent has already confirmed Iran is on the agenda. The Strait of Hormuz carrying a fifth of global oil still running at four crossings a day instead of the normal dozens. Crude at $100. The April CPI print this morning almost certainly heading for 3.7% year-over-year, and the White House desperate for an energy price relief valve before the summer driving season makes the headline number something even a sympathetic anchor can't spin.
So Trump needs Xi. Badly. On Iran. On oil. On the one lever that can move headline inflation more than anything Warsh will do at the Fed this quarter.
And Xi knows exactly what he has.
China successfully beat back Trump's unprecedented tariff escalation last year — pushing tariffs past 140 percent — by wielding rare earth minerals and magnets as a "break glass" tool. When Xi threatened to restrict those flows in April and October 2025, Trump folded. That didn't happen in secret. Every procurement officer at Raytheon, every fab manager at GlobalFoundries, every EV battery team watching cobalt and graphite flows — they all saw it. The lesson was filed. Beijing has a weapon and has demonstrated it will use it.
Now Trump walks into a summit carrying the following cards: inflation he can't control, a Fed chair he couldn't fire and now has replaced, an oil shock caused by a war he co-started, and a November midterm season where $5 gas in the Midwest is an electoral catastrophe. Xi is sitting on the valve for both petroleum diplomacy and the minerals that run the defense-industrial base.
Xi has long told cadres that "the East is rising and the West is declining" and that "time and momentum" are on China's side. He is not negotiating from anxiety.
What does the market have priced for this meeting? Roughly: moderate goodwill, no breakthroughs, symbolic Boeing and soybean purchases, a polite communiqué about AI safety dialogue, and a quiet extension of the Busan rare earths truce into 2027. The S&P held its six-week rally through Monday. The narrative is benign. Equities are treating the summit as noise.
This is the complacency that should bother you.
China's export control architecture has moved in only one direction — expansion. It started with gallium and germanium in August 2023, added graphite in December of that year, antimony in September 2024, and extended to seven middle and heavy rare earths in April 2025. The staircase goes up. The November suspension was a pause, not a reversal. The institutional framework — the licensing apparatus, the legal authority, the extraterritorial reach — remains intact. When the suspension expires, Beijing can flip the switch again. Markets should price for optionality, not certainty.
And here's the piece that doesn't get written: there is no heavy rare earth separation happening in the United States at present. None. China controls roughly 98% of rare earths processing. The West has had two years of warning, one year of suspension-induced breathing room, and has built — so far — not enough. Refining capacity is the real chokepoint. China's cost advantage in processing isn't just about labor or environmental standards. It's about integrated supply chains, co-product recovery, and decades of operational learning. Western projects can match Chinese refining costs eventually, but "eventually" doesn't help if the controls snap back in nine months.
So what happens in Beijing?
Best case: Iran mediation gains traction, oil comes off, the Busan truce gets quietly extended another year, markets rally hard, and everyone pretends the structural problem doesn't exist for another twelve months.
Base case: Symbolic wins on soybeans and Boeing, vague language on rare earths, nothing binding on Iran, oil stays where it is, the CPI number this morning starts a slow-drip repricing of equities at 20.9x forward earnings that no single catalyst triggers but everyone eventually acknowledges.
Worst case: Iran talks collapse, the meeting produces friction on Taiwan, Beijing decides the Busan truce has cost more in leverage than it purchased in goodwill, and the November controls come back early or with new teeth. That scenario is not priced. Not even slightly.
The market is watching a photo op. The actual negotiation — the one conducted in the understated language of licensing approvals and export quota tables — will determine whether a F-35 rolling off the line in 2027 has the dysprosium it needs, whether a fab in Arizona can source the gallium compound its process requires, whether the AI data center buildout powering Nvidia's forward multiple has uninterrupted access to the semiconductor materials underneath it all.
Trump needs a win. Xi is comfortable. The clock is running.
182 days.