How I am feeling right now:
I just dumped this to ChatGPT and it replied the following:
You've uploaded an image that appears to be a graph with "confidence" on the y-axis and "knowledge" on the x-axis. There's a curve that increases, decreases, and then increases again, indicating a relationship between confidence and knowledge. There's a point labeled "me" at the low point of confidence which is likely meant to be humorous or self-deprecating, perhaps suggesting that the person is at a point where they realize how much they don't know, thus their confidence is low.
This is commonly referred to as the "Dunning-Kruger effect" curve, a cognitive bias where people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. As people gain more knowledge, they initially realize their limitations, which reduces confidence, but with more experience and knowledge, confidence begins to increase again.
I read some insightful answers to my last few posts about Hive API and other things that bothered me (rewards distribution). I am all the way down in the 'valley of despair' right now. It's not as bad as that sounds, and I wasn't at peak confidence about that topic before, but I got humbled massively.
In short, there are talented people working on some issues here on Hive, at a level that I was not aware of until I looked at the replies this morning.
I still think they are going wrong about it, while also never thinking or claiming, that I'd do a better job.
The good part is that I have more confidence in where Hive is going.
The bad part is that I feel like they are putting their heads down and powering through it.
That is necessary sometimes. Sometimes, this makes you lose track of the goal you are trying to achieve, though.
I fed that last part to ChatGPT and part of the reply was this:
Sunk Cost Fallacy: This is a decision-making error where people continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money, or effort). It might resemble what you're describing as "putting their heads down and powering through" even if it may lead to losing track of the original goal.
That thing is awesome.
The reply wasn't what I was looking for, but I have learned of a new concept.
I am still confident that there is a better solution out there.
I lack the tools to express it and conceptualize it properly, but I can feel it.
I think abandoning the original whitepaper was a mistake.
Instead of changing the goal post, we (that means dev team and users like myself) should bundle ressources to work on the original goal instead of settling for what works.
It would have been better to view this as an experiment (I still do) rather than releasing it into the wild and have it listed on exchanges. Now people are 'playing the game' and since it has quite the impact in real life (there is serious money involved for some) it gets tested at runtime and we insta-broke it in several places. Now they (we) are rushing to fix something that was built wrong to begin with.
To reflect on the above, I fed it to ChatGPT again and asked it to just name the known concepts that could be at play here:
Intuition
Escalation of Commitment
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Visionary Leadership
Groupthink
Innovator's Dilemma
Experimental Mindset
Premature Scaling
Market Realism
That's quite profound.
visionary leadership
This is exactly what we are lacking. This is also why I keep crying out for . (I use it as a meme- I don't really expect him to ever come back)
Someone who keeps the vision alive, someone to debate and bounce ideas off of. It doesn't have to be a single person, but maybe we should leave more space for fundamental debates, instead of patching the leaks.
premature scaling
ChatGPT gave me this:
This is a startup term referring to the attempt to grow quickly before finding a proven, scalable business model or solution. The notion of having something 'released into the wild' and then breaking implies that the system was scaled up for wider use before it was ready.
...I'd say in the context of Hive, that we started playing before all the cards were dealt and before enough players sat at the table. Now they blame the game, instead of the players.
I said something to that extent within the first month of arriving here.
escalation of commitment
ChatGPT describes it as the following:
This is a pattern of behavior in which an individual or group persists in a decision or action despite facing negative outcomes. This can happen in project management and development where resources continue to be invested in a failing course of action based on the investment already made.
I love this technology.
I am done with this post for now.
So I ask ChatGPT if I could title this 'meditations' and it agrees somewhat, but part of the reply is this:
Alternatively, if your activity is more about active problem-solving or brainstorming, you might choose a title that reflects that dynamic process, such as "Reflections," "Contemplations," or "Musings." These terms suggest a more casual or varied approach to thinking things through.
'Reflections' it is.
I don't know if the above has any value at all.
Maybe I am sitting at the peak of 'the mountain of stupidity' going back to the picture I started the post with.
I just wish dev would communicate their thought processes like I am trying above. But then they wouldn't have time to work; we wouldn't have anything, because nothing would get built.