A Thoughtful Statistical Analysis of Murphy's Law, or, WHY the Buttered Side Always Falls Downward!
I Like Toast and Jam
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Pielmayer and http://unsplash.com
"Anything that can go wrong will go wrong!"
That is perhaps the most common statement of a formula long known as "Murphy's Law."
According to an article published in The Desert Wings newspaper in March, 1978, the legendary Murphy's Law was born at Edward's Air Force Base in 1949, and named after Capt. Edward A. Murphy, an engineer working on Air Force Project MX981.
Since its inception, Murphy's Law has accumulated a vast number of variations and corollaries. You can read about as many of them as you like in this self-described ultimate collection.
Today I'd like to share with you my personal corollary to Murphy's Law.
I call it "The 50/50:90 Rule"
What I mean by "The 50/50:90 Rule" is this:
"Given any 50/50 chance, 90 percent of the time the outcome will be the UNDESIRED option."
I've come to this conclusion through long experimentation, study, and analysis.
For example, if I'm trying to win a coin toss, 90% of the time the other guy wins.
If there are two candidates for the job, guess who gets it (nine times out of ten)?
If I can forget either my comb or my wallet - yup, it's usually my wallet that gets left at home.
If I drop my piece of toast, 90% of the time it will land with the buttered side down.
When my glass of iced tea fell off the ladder as I was hammering nails in my shop, it had exactly two choices:
- It could have, (quite harmlessly, apart from spilling the contents), landed almost anywhere.
- It could land directly on my smartphone, destroying the display.
Is there any question in your mind which of the two paths it took? And, I ask you, how damn smart was that phone of mine, anyway, if it couldn't even dodge a falling glass of tea?
Busted "Smart" Phone
Photo courtesy of yorkali and https://pixabay.com
I have since learned...
Through my review of The Ultimate Collection of Murphy's Laws, I have since learned that others have made similar observations about The Law. However, I believe that my statement of The 50/50:90 Rule is the most universally applicable formulation.
What do You think?
I hope that you find my corollary, The 50/50:90 Rule, useful in interpreting the events in your own life. Feel free to share your observations by Replying below.
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