Hurricane Irma is still expected to make landfall near Miami as a category 4 storm on Sunday morning and then traverse up the center or East coast of Florida (with the West coast still a possibility). If the forecast holds true, this will likely cause even more damage than Hurricane Harvey.
Pretty much anybody in the state of Florida needs to be paying attention to this. Where I live along the Space Coast is expected to receive 100 MPH winds despite being far from initial landfall. Below is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:
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Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
...EYE OF IRMA PASSING JUST NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...21.5N 73.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach - Florida Keys
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
- North of Bonita Beach to Venice
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach - Florida Keys
- Lake Okeechobee
- Florida Bay
- Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas - Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
- Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara - Central Bahamas
- Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
- North of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island
- Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
- Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress
of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 73.3 West. Irma is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next day or two with a decrease in forward speed.
A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move westward
away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. The core of the hurricane will then move
between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day
or two.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 160 mph (260 km/h) with
higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 925 mb (27.31 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft
Bonita Beach to Venice...3 to 5 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area in Haiti this morning. Hurricane conditions
are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm and
hurricane conditions are spreading across the southeastern Bahamas
and will move into the central Bahamas later this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
along the north coast of Cuba late today and Saturday. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and
Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys
late Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Sunday evening:
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...
additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6
inches.
Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...additional 1 to 2
inches.
Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches.
Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25
inches.
Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 20 inches
Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches.
Central Florida into northeast Florida and coastal Georgia...3 to 6
inches, isolated 10 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and in some areas mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should
start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States
later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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