Well, I think a lot of us had this hunch. The typical statistic in business is that 90% of start-up businesses fail (I believe that's in the first five years, too?). So, it's natural we'd see this apply to ICO's as well.
ICO's have been such a cash grab lately, and have merely been capitalizing on the market hype. This is absolutely a sign of a bubble. I mean, look at TRON for example (will make a bubble post about TRON later). This token is just a white paper and a website with marketing. Despite whether we think TRON will be successful or not, it illustrates a point: ICO's with NOTHING to show are raking in BILLIONS of dollars just on ideas.
Now tell me, with the current market conditions propelling billions of dollars into concepts with only a white paper, why would a company actually need to develop a product? As such, we will see these ICO's fail. Despite failure, tokens will still be traded on exchanges until they eventually go to zero.
Now, can we use this model to ensure that we see ICO success in the future? I hope so. Overall I think the ICO concept is amazing and genius. It's one of the best crowd funding things I've ever seen in my life. In addition, it will accelerate innovation and creation for the good projects. How else can you raise that much money, especially in such a short time?
ZeroHedge wrote a great article about this idea. Read the full thing HERE