I'm tweeting out the best stuff I find but this is a source and person I recommend highly. Cmdr Dyer is former US Naval intelligence and she's a diligent online researcher.
Trump says ‘very big’: Unconfirmed reports ISIS leader Baghdadi killed in northwestern Syria
There are some immediate oddities in that. First, many analysts consider the likelihood low that Baghdadi was actually in Idlib province. (As Newsweek reported, the Russians have sworn he’s not.) Although there is a concentration left there of Sunni opposition forces, in enclaves defying the Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian backers, ISIS has not been thought to have an organized or effective presence there for some time.
Frankly, that makes it more likely in my mind, not less, that Baghdadi could have been hiding out there. He wouldn’t want to be where there’s a known ISIS presence. That would just attract undesirable attention.
But the other oddity on a quicklook is that U.S. special forces went into Idlib to execute this operation. There were reports from locals circulating on Twitter earlier that U.S. forces had entered for an apparent operation of some kind; seemingly, a short-lived tactical action. And it’s not unprecedented. But we don’t wander Idlib unimpeded. That’s Assad/Russia territory, being held – still on an active combat basis – by their forces against the remnants of rebel forces.
Read the rest on her blog where she's updating live.
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