It’s all over but the crying, folks. And the crying will come from the corner of the room where the neocons that run Washington D.C. and Tel Aviv sit.
With the Iraqi army routing the rebellion of Masoud Barzani’s Peshmerga forces in Kirkuk spells the end of an independent Kurdistan in Syria. While at the same time the pro-Assad coalition continues to pressure U.S.-backed SDF forces of the YPG Kurds in Syria.
Then this morning Zerohedge runs a major story that the SDF met in secret with the Russian commanders to cede a major oil field to coalition forces. From the al-Masdar story Zerohedge quoted:
The information, disseminated by Syrian military reports, claims that an agreement has been brokered between Russia and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces whereby the Syrian government will be allowed to assume control over the gas field.
If true, then the scope of any backdoor agreements reached between Moscow and Washington regarding the transfer of energy assets held by Kurdish-led militias back to the rightful ownership of the Damascus government may yet encompass wider dimensions (i.e. future transfers) – although there is absolutely no evidence to suggest this is in fact the case.
Nonetheless, the unexpected transfer of the Conoco Gas Field by the SDF to the Syrian government does now raise questions as to whether or not the hitherto competition between the Syrian Arab Army and Kurdish-led militias to seize control of the much larger Al-Omar Oil Field from ISIS further south is still on.
As expected, once the Kurdish rebellion in Iraq was controlled the YPG Kurds would accede to reality and see the situation for what it was. This move to cede the Conoco Gas Field is likely because of the offer by the Syrian government made recently to negotiate Kurdish autonomy in the post-military environment.
Back channel communications with the Syrian government, Russian diplomats and Kurdish representatives likely hammered out a deal behind the backs of the U.S. commanders in the region east of the Euphrates River.
With these two events happening within two days of one another puts the U.S. in a very sticky situation in Syria. Its Kurdish allies are cutting deals with Assad. Turkey is cleaning up Al-Qaeda in Idlib. Iraqi Kurds have been routed, losing all the territory they’d gained during ISIS’s brief reign of terror.
The whole plan to carve up and destabilize Syria has collapsed. And John McCain, Hillary Clinton and the House of Saud all have Russian President Vladimir Putin to thank for it. The only one who hasn’t completely gotten the memo is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who continues to try and provoke a wider conflict by striking within Syrian territory.
U.S. Disaster Response
So, the response from the Trump administration here will be a telling one.
Will Trump and the U.S. Deep State double down here and champion Kurdish independence as a cover for more troops?
They will have to make the case that Iran is the big winner in this, which they are. But, that is still a tough sell. Because to make that case Trump has to make the case for staying in Syria after ISIS has been defeated.
And how is he going to do that when his base put him in power to end nation-building. Dropping troops into Iraq and Syria to secure Kurdish independence is exactly that. I haven’t heard much hew and cry from us to undo the Iraqi army’s gains and support the Kurdish Independence Referendum.
In fact, the silence on this is deafening.
Trump’s idiot U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley continues to make a fool out of herself saying
“When a country can come interfere in another country’s elections, that is warfare. It really is because you’re making sure the democracy shifts from what the people want to giving out that misinformation. And we didn’t just see it here. … They are doing this everywhere and this is their new weapon of choice.”
Haley said this, without a shred of irony mind you, about Russia interfering in the U.S. elections last year. Of course, I highlight this knowing that the U.S. overthrew the Ukrainian government in 2014, and Libya, and attempted to do so in Syria.
This is a level of mendacity and lack of self-awareness I’ve only seen in Hillary Clinton.
And so, at some point soon the opposite is what will occur. Once ISIS is finished, likely in the next couple of weeks, the U.S. will do what it always does, declare victory and leave.
Its failure in Syria is a blow to U.S. exceptionalism and the neocon empire. Netanyahu will be left exposed while the next phase begins, namely the political negotiations for post-war Syria’s government and the real negotiations for the balance of power in the region.
And we have the pragmatism of both Russia and the Kurdish leadership in Syria to thank for it.
Investment Angle
Stories like this tie into the big geopolitical picture because it underscores Russia’s victory to secure its long-term position as the major supplier of natural gas to Europe. Putin has skillfully cornered the U.S. and Saudi Arabians in Syria.
We will likely strike back with more economic sanctions but they will have almost no effect, unless targeted at the EU directly. But, you can only squeeze those politicians so far. The unrest we see across Europe is a direct consequence of the EU doing the bidding of U.S. foreign policy agents and not pursuing their own interests.
Any further economic aggression against Europe will result first in political upheaval that will see unapproved people running core countries like Spain and Italy and then economic upheaval as countries begin to leave the EU and cut individual deals with Russia and China on trade and energy.