If you want to know who is going to win the US Presidential election, you should keep an eye on the Petrol Prices, at least according to this recent CNN artilce.
Fuel prices could well have more impact on the outcome than other issues such as the economy, climate change or immigration.
The average price for petrol in the US is currently around $3.59. This is about halfway between the Pandemic low of $2 and the more recent high of $5 after Russia's invastion of Ukraine.
Analysis of past presidential results suggests the outcome correlates with the price of petrol.
if the price falls towards $3, Biden should win, if it's over $4 then Trump should win.
This is because petrol prices are very visible, and volatile, we can see them changing every week, every time we drive past a petrol station.
Petrol may only make up 4% of the average American's budget, but the act of filling up once a week means you really feel that price change: $40 for a tank is a massive difference to $80!
There's nothing else quite like it - it's a sizeable chunk of money that can vary every week, and I also guess petrol is symbolic of America - it represents individual freedom, and it's a necessity for work and leisure, so basically your life!
If the price is going down, you feel good, and so you stick with the safe option, if the price is going up, you vote for change.
I mean it's maybe not that simply, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on whether the correlation holds true for this year's presidential race!
Especially when there's so much other DRAMA surrounding the election!