Study Suggests Adverse Weather Conditions May Favor Conservative Parties
There are many factors that influence an election result, and the weather could be one of them. At least, in a percentage that, although small, in some cases can be decisive. This is suggested by the results of a study conducted by researchers from the Australian National University.
In his report, which analyzed election results in the United States in 1948 and 2000, and crossed them with those referring to the weather on the day of each election, revealed that Republicans obtained an average of 1% more votes on rainy days, while Democrats lost 2.1%, and abstention increased by 1.1%.
Leaving aside the fact that statistical analyses are likely to be interpreted in many ways, the study does point to trends that are curious, although they would need to be contrasted with similar reports in other countries. But what would explain this increase in votes on the conservative side?
It seems clear that bad weather means that many people who are not ideologically conscious will not vote. And that abstention would mainly affect the Democratic Party. Regarding the increase in conservative votes, the study authors hypothesize. They believe that bad weather causes anxiety in many people and creates risk aversion. And this, in the electoral sphere, would mean that many people who are undecided as to which option to vote, would eventually opt for the most conservative, meaning that they would flee the risk that the most progressive policies would supposedly entail (for some).