Markets propel forward on US-Mexico trade deal news. The cannabis carnival continues. A quiet investing day with a little more work on altcoin trading strategy. It is easier to trade when cryptocurrency markets jump - though the lessons have less value.
Portfolio News
Market Jitters - Tariff Tantrum Trump tweets about a US-Mexico deal and markets propel forward
New highs reached for Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and S&P500 on the back of US-Mexico trade deal being agreed BUT before any detail is released about what is in the deal. It is clearly good for US automotive manufacturers, especially components. The drivers though of the S&P rise were financials and materials. There is no doubt that trade is the biggest worry for markets now. Soothe the Mexico trade story and the market moves ahead and puts its fears about China and Turkey behind it.
It did help that China took more action on its currency which strengthened again - 2.36% from the lows 2 weeks ago (weekly chart).
The move up in financial stocks followed a rise in yields.
The headlines tell a good story. In 3 headlines from yesterday, 3 days ago and 5 days ago, we have yields rise, tread water and slip. Who knows where this market wants to go. The Eurodollar futures market certainly looks like it wants to go down with price making a lower low and a series of lower highs (4 hour chart). I resisted the urge to add to my short positions.
Note: this is a price chart. Price falls when rates rise. European rates want to rise too.
Cannabis Carnival Canadain marijuana stocks continue to rocket.
I get concerned when the headlines are about how to make a million on marijuana or comparing marijuana to Bitcoin. You read it here - about both. These 3 articles all have different angles but do provide some groundwork for your research. I continue to focus on medicinal marijuana in countries where its use is legalized.
Sold
Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF (GVIP): Partial fill from Friday completed on market open for 11% profit since November 2017. See TIB287 for the discussion on this trade.
This trade is an example of what the SEC wants to see from Bitcoin markets. This was a pending limit order for $57.60 which has been on the books for a while. Price gapped on the open above that price - a properly managed market will execute at the opening price ($57.99). A shonky market will execute at the limit price and keep the difference or share it with the buyer.
Cryptocurency
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Price range for the day was $303 (4.6% of the low). Price wanted to break higher and closed above the resistance line I drew in yesterday (top pink ray). This is an important move as it took out the Bitmex spike high as well. The next test is whether price can break the short term downtrend line. Note: I have drawn this in connecting the opens/closes, whichever is higher, for each day and not the highs.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Price range for the day was $17 (6.3% of the low). Price also wanted to move higher and made a bigger move than BTC but feels less convincing as the distance to the short term downtrend line is some way away. The good news is that price did move through the support line and close above it and made a 5 day high.
CryptoBots
Outsourced Bot Bots cannot trade back to profit without capital and this account was such a mess with price moves not going to make anything happen. I opened up one account to allow more trades. 4 closed trades on IOTA (3 wins) and TRX for average profit of 2.43%. One other new trade open on ADA. (217 closed trades). Problem children stayed at 18 coins. (>10% down) - ETH (-60%), ZEC (-58%), DASH (-64%), LTC (-48%), BTS (-49%), ICX (-72%), ADA (-63%), PPT (-73%), DGD (-74%), GAS (-80%), SNT (-56%), STRAT (-72%), NEO (-78%), ETC (-48%), QTUM (-75%), BTG (-73%), XMR (-44%), OMG (-62%).
Most coins improved more than 2 points with ZEC (-58%), DASH (-64%), LTC (-48%), BTS (-49%), NEO (-78%) all dropping a level of downness. Only ICX (-72%) moved worse a level - giving up some of the big gains from the weekend. GAS (-80%) remains the worst and the only member of the 80% down club. Maybe the tide is turning.
Profit Trailer Bot Two closed trades (2.08% profit) bringing the position on the account to 1.53% profit (was 1.50%) (not accounting for open trades). I did increase the take profit percentage from 1.03% to 1.30%.
There are no coins on the Dollar Cost Average (DCA) list with ZEC moving off and onto profit.
Pending list remains at 12 coins with 9 coins improving, 1 coins trading flat and 2 worse. Biggest improver was at 6 points (IOTA).
PT Defender started defending IOTA and made the first profitable defence trade.
New Trading Bot Trading out using Crypto Prophecy. One new trade set up on NANO demonstrates the challenges of trading Bollinger Bands manually. My price screener popped this up as price moved below the lower Bollinger band and Crypto Prophecy had this showing as somewhat oversold (not fully oversold). The entry point chart shows price has tracked from top band to lower band and the bands are just starting to widen out.
Price entry bar is also showing indecision with a spike up and down. The momentum indicator (lower window) has not turned up. Volume has certainly been spikey. Entry at 0.011633 - just below the number showing. First target at 0.011784 is just below the centre of the bands.
The next chart shows how price has played out in the next 12 hours or so. The sellers took charge and pushed price lower along the bands before reversing 5 hours later - that is when a trading bot might have entered the trade. The take profit target (marked T) is now halfway between the centre line and the top band. As price drifts down the take profit target may end up being above the higher band. I will adjust the sell to exit where the upper band is - still profitable but below my target.
I did make that adjustment and price promptly headed to the top band and took the trade out for a loss of 0.6% - still learning what the elements of a good strategy are. A little finger trouble reversed two digits and made for the loss
Currency Trades
Forex Robot closed 4 trades (0.15% profit) and is trading at a negative equity level of 10.6% (lower than prior day's 11.0%).
Outsourced MAM account Actions to Wealth closed out 2 trades for 0.34% profits for the day.
Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas
Images: I own the rights to use and edit the Buy Sell image. News headlines come from Google Search. All other images are created using my various trading and charting platforms. They are all my own work
Tickers: I monitor my portfolios using Yahoo Finance. The ticker symbols used are Yahoo Finance tickers
Crypto prophecy provides a useful tool to identify oversold and overbought coins - https://mymark.mx/CryptoProphecy
Bitcoin: Get started with mining Bitcoin for as little as $25 http://mymark.mx/Galaxy
August 27, 2018