Last week, there were some powerful TA signals with multiple layers of confluence. As you can see in the silver chart below, there was a candlestick pattern that showed a rejection of lower prices off a line of support. This is generally a strong signal but the intermediate trend has stalled. When the low point of the long tailed candlestick got broken Friday, this invalidated the signal. At this point is when to close the position. I bought in some long term holds the other day and they will just have to sit negative for a while.
Given such a strong break of a quality signal, the technicals suggest that the silver price will have to make a deeper correction before continuing upward. A price target of 18$ is something I've been waiting (almost hoping for) before the next move up. A good bounce off intermediate support from a few months ago would be a strong bullish signal. This shakeout is needed to reliquify the markets and get traders on the wrong side of things. This will allow the bankers to take their money and push prices up on them, running all their stops.
Conclusion: Technical Signals increase the probability of a trade. Last week, the signal proved to be inaccurate. Take the loss or ride it out. The next step is to just sit on your hands and wait for price to reach another support/resistance or fibonacci level and look for a candlestick pattern signal. Go get it.
-JT