The world markets are now in uncharted territory. The U.S. and much of the world are emerging from a period of historically low interest rates: zero and even negative interest rate policies were in full effect during this time. Now, however, normalization is under way; the fed funds rate is approaching 1.75 to 2 percent, and the U.S. 10-year T-note yield is close to 3 percent.
At the same time, the stock market is near all-time highs and P/E ratios of many companies are at sky-high levels. The normal cycles and mean reversion that we’ve come to expect simply aren’t happening anymore, and everything in the markets is all out of whack. So, what are investors to make of this unusual economic environment, in which stocks and bond yields are moving up in tandem?
In regard to these vital issues in the markets, Wealth Research Group recently had the chance to speak with Dan Kurz, Chartered Financial Analyst with DK Analytics, located on the web at DKAnalytics.com. Through posts, reports, and videos, Dan Kurz and DK Analytics offer investors independent ideas in an era of financial repression and crony capitalism. Dan’s deep and broad analytical experience at the macro and micro levels are reflected in numerous food-for-thought pieces at DKAnalytics.com.
Wealth Research Group wanted to know from Dan Kurz what to expect in the next few years in this environment of rising interest rates. According to Dan Kurz, if you’re buying U.S. stocks now, with current P/E levels and valuations being elevated, those assets are going to be potentially marked down substantially.
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Mr. Kurz continues by stating that stock prices have a long way to fall if, in fact, two things happen: interest rates keep going up, and we get a recession, which is inevitable. According to Dan Kurz, we haven’t had a recession in the United States in a long time and it has been an anemic recovery; using real inflation numbers, we never really got out of the Great Recession at all.
Even if we use the government’s statistics – corrupt as they are – a recession in the United States is overdue, according to Dan Kurz. In the current economic environment, our GDP growth will go from a nominal reading of 2 or 3 to a slightly negative reading. EPS (earnings per share) for these companies could easily go down 40 to 50 percent in the next recession.
Current P/E ratios are elevated and this is not a sustainable environment, according to Dan Kurz, and there is going to be an opportunity to repurchase shares at much lower levels. The message, then, is this: get out of harm’s way, bring home capital, and set yourself up for purchasing opportunities down the road.
Mr. Kurz also wants you to remember something important: many analysts mistakenly say that we have “reversion to the mean.” But that’s a fiction: there’s always reversion beyond the mean. It’s from boom to bust, and from bust back to boom. It’s human nature, and it’s the manic-depressive nature of the markets.
So, according to Dan Kurz, we’re not going to have reversion to the mean, meaning an average P/E ratio of 15 for U.S. equities. Rather, we could easily go to P/E ratios of 7 or 8, especially if we consider our out-of-control debt situation, reduced property right protections, and a much-weakened rule of law. All told, this could be a setup for a perfect storm in the economy and the markets.
And according to Dan Kurz, investors can capitalize on this by getting out of harm’s way right now: don’t buy at current prices, and position yourself to be able to buy blue-chip stocks yielding not 1 or 2 percent, but 6 or 7 percent. It’s a huge opportunity, if you are ready and willing to take Mr. Dan Kurz’s advice to heart.
Dan Kurz’s interview with Wealth Research Group is an imperative warning that you must listen to for the sake of you and your family’s financial future. You should also avail yourself of Wealth Research Group’s top-notch reports, which include the Ultimate Report on Safe-Haven Assets so you can protect yourself when the big reset takes place; my Personal Treasure Trove where I reveal the trades I’m making right now; as well as our Crash Blueprint, in which I explain exactly how to prepare and execute a safety plan for a financial crisis.
Best Regards,
Lior Gantz
President, WealthResearchGroup.com