In the last two month a lot of wealthy and famous people have warned of an imminent stock market crash. We will examine this and start with George Sorros. He made a huge bet on a German bank collapse. Especially Deutsche Bank is in his focus.
Because the stock market didn't crash in the last two month, he doubled his bet. If the stock market will not crash in the next two month he will surely again double his bet. This can't be done infinitely, so for George Sorros there has to come a crash soon.
On the other hand the fate of Deutsche Bank is very sure. With it's 1.6 quintillion in liabilities this banking corporation is a bomb that will explode sooner or later. Until then let's see if George Sorros runs out of money with his doubling strategy.
The next one is Jim Rogers, who predicts that we will all suffer a lot in the future due to Central Banking mistakes. He thinks, the longer it takes until the flood comes the more severe it will be. And the flood is permanently postponed by the Central Banks due to more money printing and so it will be very severe.
His strategy is to own the U.S. Dollar, because when the catastrophe is taking place everyone will move into U.S. Dollars and then he will sell all of his U.S. Dollars before the rest of the investors, who are still alive, realize that it is not a save haven. I hope he succeeds, because I like him in contrast to George Sorros.
Next is Nassim Taleb who predicts a black swan is coming soon. In his view a black swan is some kind of unpredictable event that no one ever imagined possible. Hyper inflation or extreme stock market crash with a lot of companies going bancrupt? Or both?
From Rothschild to Donald Trump. Everyone in the last two month played Cassandra except one: Warren Buffett.
In my opinion the market is overpriced. The truth is, that I can't find any company that is cheap at the moment. But Warren Buffett is able to find cheap companies also during periods when the stock market is soaring. And that's his job. It is not playing Cassandra and making predictions.
His latest buy: Apple Inc. But is this stock really cheap? I will analyse this in my next article. Until then one last quote from my first investment role model.
My name is cryp71x. I am a software developer and hobby investor for about 16 years now.