Source: https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/2034500856603615500?s=20
Israel's Strike on Iran's South Pars Natural Gas Processing Facility
Yesterday Israel conducted a precision strike on Iran's South Pars gas processing facility. It took out some specialised equipment that takes the entire plant offline but that could be repaired in a few weeks in peacetime conditions.
This gas field is used 95% for Iranian domestic consumption with 5% going to Iraq. Taking it out cuts out 75% of Iran's domestic gas supplies and 70% of total electricity production.
This will severely impact the ability of the IRGC to conduct this war and terrorise the Iranian people & the region.
It is a huge loss for the Iranian regime and puts its survival in real doubt.
BIG WIN #1!
Iran's Strikes on Qatar LNG Facility
But it gets even better for Israel.
In response to this strike, Iran lashed out at everyone (Israel & Gulf States) firing larger missile and drone barrages than the recent low levels.
But the only place they hit & caused real damage was Qatar, hitting the largest Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production facility in the world with multiple strikes & putting it out of action for some time.
They also killed 4 palestinian Arab women in Hebron.
Talk about an own goal!!.
Qatar funded Hamas's October 7 attacks, has spent billions promoting anti-semitism around the world and still hosts Hamas leaders. Israel has wanted to punish Qatar for this but has been restrained by the US, which sees value in their Qatar relationship.
Qatar has now been severely punished for its evil behaviour, not directly by Israel, but by Iran!
Iran has now completely destroyed its relationships & trust with the Gulf State, as Saudi Arabia's statement indicates.
This is a huge win for Israel.
BIG WIN #2!
Financial Bonanza for Israel, Egypt & the USA
But wait, there's more!
The war in general & these strikes in particular have massively increased the price of LNG, much more than oil. Europe relied heavily on Qatari LNG to replace sanctioned Russian gas.
In the US natural gas is less than $4/mmBtu while in Europe it is $20/mmBtu!
Israel is a major gas exporter and exports gas via pipelines to Jordan and Egypt for both their domestic consumption and, in the case of Egypt, for liquification to LNG and export to Europe when prices are high.
Jordan and Egypt both pay for Israeli gas at prices linked to Brent crude oil, which has now risen from around $75 to $105 due to the war.
Egypt's LNG facilities were sitting almost idle before the war, but now will soon be operating at full capacity with hugely increased imports of gas from Israel as Egypt takes advantage of the arbitrage between its Brent based contract pricing and the very high LNG prices in Europe.
It is a short sail from Egypt to Europe to unload the LNG and thus the global LNG tanker shortage will not affect this trade. The Egypt - Europe route can much more efficiently exploit LNG tanker capacity than other longer routes & thus Egypt can afford to make the highest bids for LNG tankers.
The upshot of this is that Israel will make an additional $350 million per month in additional gas sales to Egypt (more than triple pre-war sales) while Egypt will make around $200 million per month from LNG sales to Europe at these very high spot LNG prices.
The US is also a major LNG supplier, including to Europe, and will also benefit greatly.
In addition, unlike the US, Israel already has a super profits regime for energy companies that diverts a substantial proportion of the windfall profits of the gas companies into Israel's sovereign wealth fund, thus benefiting all Israelis.
Detailed Calculations
Here are the calculations, courtesy of Grok.
Prompt:
Estimate the monthly increased revenue for both Israel and Egypt based on this maximised LNG export at current LNG spot & Brent linked prices compared to the situation before the current war with Iran.
Response:
Estimated monthly increased revenue (at current March 19, 2026 prices vs. pre-Iran-war baseline in early 2026/late 2025):
Israel (Leviathan partners – Chevron, NewMed, Ratio, etc.): +$350–400 million/month
Egypt (Blue Ocean Energy / EGAS LNG arbitrage): +$180–220 million/month
Key Assumptions & Calculations (current vs. pre-war)
Prices
Current Brent: ~$112/bbl (spiked post-South Pars strikes).
Pre-war Brent: ~$85/bbl average (Jan–early Mar 2026).
Israeli gas contract price (Brent-linked formula, ~10.3% slope + uplift from 2025 deal):
Current: ~$11.5/mmBtu
Pre-war: ~$9.3/mmBtu (matches reported ~$7.75–$9.3 in 2025 articles, scaled to Brent + 20% new-deal premium).
European delivered LNG spot (Idku/Damietta cargoes to Europe): ~$19/mmBtu (TTF hub ~$17.4/mmBtu + short-haul premium amid crisis; earlier March peaks >$20).
Pre-war LNG spot: ~$12–13/mmBtu → negligible arbitrage.
Volumes (feedgas to LNG plants)
Maximised LNG export: full 12.2 mtpa capacity → ~17 bcm/year feedgas (~622 million mmBtu/year or ~52 million mmBtu/month).
Israeli gas share: ramped contract allows ~12–15 bcm/year to Egypt; assume 14 bcm/year (~513 million mmBtu/year or ~43 million mmBtu/month) diverted to liquefaction.
Pre-war Israeli deliveries to Egypt: ~5 bcm/year (~15 million mmBtu/month).
Pre-war Egyptian LNG exports: near-zero (plants idle or minimal; country was net importer of ~9 mt in 2025).
Costs for Egypt (liquefaction + Med–Europe shipping/opex): ~$3.5/mmBtu (industry standard; older Egyptian LNG full-chain cost ~$7–8.5 when gas was cheaper).
Monthly Revenue Breakdown
Israel (gas sales revenue only)
Current: 43m mmBtu/month × $11.5 = ~$494 million
Pre-war: 15m mmBtu/month × $9.3 = ~$140 million
Net increase: +$354 million/month (higher price on base volume + full ramped volume at current price).
Egypt (LNG sales profit)
Margin: $19 (LNG sale) – $11.5 (Israeli gas) – $3.5 (costs) = +$4/mmBtu
Volume: 52m mmBtu/month × $4 = +$208 million/month
Pre-war: ~$0–20 million/month (near-zero exports + slim or negative margins).
Net increase: +$190–210 million/month.
Why the big jump?
Egypt captures 100% of the arbitrage (buys cheap Brent-linked pipeline gas, sells high spot LNG to Europe).
Israel gets only the contracted price (no share of LNG upside) but benefits enormously from both volume ramp-up (Leviathan expansion + debottlenecking) and the Brent spike.
Pre-war baseline had low Brent, low Israeli volumes, idle LNG plants, and Egypt importing expensive LNG instead of exporting.
These are conservative commercial estimates based on reported deal economics, current market quotes, and plant capacities. Actual figures will vary with exact contract slope/floor, monthly Brent averages, realised LNG cargo prices, and any temporary supply interruptions (Israeli fields were briefly shut post-strike). The $35 bn total contract value over 130 bcm implies a long-term average ~$7.4/mmBtu, but current high-Brent pricing is already well above that and will drive outsized near-term cash flows for both parties.
BIG WIN #3!
A single strike has produced three huge benefits for Israel & also benefits for the US.