The probability, in my mind at the moment at least, is that the US will exit the Iran deal, and US will negotiate a new deal that puts pressure on the PetroYuan, but more importantly opens Iran to direct US private investment.
Iran is such a wonderful country with great people, amazing terrain, and well...history.
As investors we have to envision a world that is different than today, different from the status quo, if we want to stay in this game for the long haul.
Right now, one of the biggest changes available to the world would be an Iran that is partners with the United States in ways that it hasn't been since the revolution.
Opening up the Iranian market and North Korean markets would be amongst the biggest shifts in geopolitics since the fall of the Soviet Union, IMO.
No hard research to follow, merely deploying my thoughts.