The answer to the question posed in the title is we really don’t know. I’ve been following the social media accounts of Iranian exiles and there is a massive amount of enthusiasm for the current large protests in Iran against the Islamist regime from that quarter.
I really hope that this time the Iranians manage to free themselves from the horrific Islamic dictatorship that they have been forced to live under since 1979 following the Iranian Islamic Revolution. I was around for that takeover of Iran by the Mullahs and remember the geopolitical impact it had and the monstrosities it created in Iran such as the American Hostage Crisis. The takeover of Iran by the Mullahs entered the public’s consciousness so much that references to Iran were readily recognised. For example Iran was such a big story that a reference in a joke about the Devil greeting new souls made in I believe 1980/81 by Rowan Atkinson contained the line ‘the Iranians can’t be here tonight as they’ve been kept in Purgatory for the last 18 months’ and people laughed, they understood both the joke and what was happening to the Iranian people.
Well the Iranians have had a lot longer than eighteen months in the Islamic extremist purgatory of Iran, they’ve had 47 years of it. They’ve had state murders, oppression of women, being impressed into fighting in pointless wars, economic problems, fear of the Iranian state’s thugs, censorship, oppression of religious minorities and so much more.
We’ve also seen the Iranians rise up over the years and protest against their horrific Islamic extremist government only to have these protests put down violently and ultimately fail. Will this time be the time that the protests actually work? Like many I had high hopes for the previous rounds of protest but saw them and the hopes I had for an end to the Iranian’s nightmare rule by their oppressors being dashed.
However this time might be different. The protests are widespread and growing and the Iranian Islamic regime is weaker than it has been in years following the Twelve Day War when Israeli forces knocked out some of the Iranian regime’s more important strategic assets. Also due to mismanagement of the Iranian economy and Iran’s infrastructure more people have been put in difficult positions than may have been the case during previous uprisings.
This could be the time that the Iranians finally free themselves from the Mullahs who have been oppressing them for nearly half a century. But then again it might not. The Iranian regime might pull out human and material resources that we are unaware of that allow it to limp on but this round of protests might be the final straw for the regime. We cannot be completely sure at this stage.
I want the Iranians to be free of the Mullahs that have oppressed them for most of my life but because so many revolts there have been brutally crushed in the past I’m not going to prematurely celebrate. I will not be sure enough to celebrate until the high ups in the Iranian Islamic regime have either fled the country or are dangling from the same gallows that they’ve used to kill the regime’s opponents and they have a new government that works for the Iranian people and for regional peace. The shows not over until the fat Mullah flees I’m afraid.