IDF forces have advanced deep into Gaza from both the North and East and appear to have encircled Gaza City and cut the Gaza strip in half.
While some of the advance has been through open ground, there is plenty of evidence of advance into built-up urban areas as these on the ground and satellite photos show.
Hamas Defences not working
Despite Hamas's well prepared defences including 500 mile of tunnels and well armed fighters with lots of anti-tank missiles, IEDs, booby traps and all manner of defensive measures, the IDF is yet (tfoo tfoo tfoo) to suffer a single combat death in Gaza since the ground operation began.
Its not as if Hamas is not attacking IDF forces. They are throwing everything they have at them, firing numerous anti-tank missiles, mortars and machine gun fire. Many hundreds of Hamas fighters have been killed in ground combat in the past few days.
I am aware from internal Israeli sources that a few Israeli soldiers have been injured in Gaza, but so far there is not a single IDF combat death in Gaza.
For those that think that the IDF is hiding deaths, I say that this is not possible in Israeli society, particularly because Jewish Law requires the funeral and burial to occur very quickly, within 24-48 hours. Soldier deaths are reported quickly and the reservist that was recently killed in the North when his tank overturned (the student of a neighbour of mine) and an earlier combat death on the edge of Gaza before the ground operation are further proof of that.
It is clear that Hamas's vaunted defences are not working.
Something extraordinary in the annals of warfare is happening here.
Hamas seems unable to lay a glove on the IDF despite close combat in an urban environment.
Early Conclusions
Now I acknowledge that this is early days, but certain fundamental things can become apparent in the first few days of close ground conflict that will dictate the course of the battle and war.
This was true in the early days of the Ukrainian counter offensive where Ukrainian forces, despite advanced Western armour, training and massive ISR support, were completely unable to penetrate Russia's defensive belt and suffered very heavy losses.
I drew these conclusions only a week into the counter-offensive in this Hive post. I correctly predicted of the course of the battles over many months and the complete failure of Ukraine's counter-offensive.
I have studied many of the important military operations of history and have closely followed the Ukraine - Russia conflict and the urban combat there, as well as the United States wars in the Middle East and elsewhere.
I have never seen an attacking force make such substantial gains in a heavily contested environment without suffering numerous combat deaths.
Every general knows that they will lose soldiers when they attack, often in large numbers - it is a basic fact of military life and is the reason why an attacking force needs a 3:1 numerical advantage to have a reasonable chance of victory.
Comparable Modern Battles
Many US commentators compare the situation to the Second Battle of Falluja against ISIS in Iraq.
But the forces on both sides were much smaller: 13k US & Allies vs 4k ISIS.
In contrast this Gaza operation pits ~150k Israeli troops vs 25-30k Hamas.
The US & Allies suffered over 100 combat deaths in a battle one tenth of the size.
Another comparator are the Battles of Mariupol and Bakhmut in the Ukraine conflict. I am citing Wikipedia while acknowledging that it may be inaccurate because of biases in an ongoing conflict.
Again, the forces involved were smaller.
Mariupol: 14k Russian vs 3-8k Ukrainian
Bakhmut: 50k Russian vs 30-80k Ukrainian
According to Wikipedia (which may exaggerate Russian losses) Russia suffered 6k killed in Mariupol and 20k killed in Bakhmut.
I note that both Mariupol and Bakhmut had very extensive underground tunnel systems and fortifications, originally built by the Soviets and then enhanced since 2014 with billions of dollars in Western aid and NATO guidance.
The Russians still succeeded in conquering these cities despite having a less than 3:1 numerical advantage.
No defensive system is unbeatable - anything built by man can be destroyed given enough high explosive.
But normally such defences apply a high cost to the attacking party.
Why are Hamas defences failing so badly?
Short Answer: Active Protection Systems (APS) on Israeli tanks and APCs.
Israel is the ONLY army in the world which has very large numbers of tanks (many armoured divisions of Merkava IV and Merkava V (Barak) tanks), Namer APCs and Eitan AFVs fitted with Trophy APS and other Israeli developed APS systems.
These shoot down any anti-tank missiles fired at the tank, APC or AFV and provide an instant firing solution on the enemy firing position.
What this appears to mean is that Israeli tanks, AFVs and APCs can advance deep into hostile urban terrain without fear of infantry anti-tank weapons. The tanks, AFVs and APCs provide mobile cover for the infantry and instant target acquisition and firepower which is then networked into artillery, air power and drone forces.
The net result appears to be that as the IDF advances and Hamas fires at them, they can't penetrate the APS screen with their anti-tank weapons and and small arms fire is physically blocked by the tanks, AFVs and APCs. As soon as Hamas fires on the advancing IDF troops an immense amount of firepower hits the Hamas firing position completely demolishing it and killing all the Hamas fighters inside.
As has been observed in Ukraine, modern firepower is able to completely erase urban structures including to well underground. Many villages "captured" by Ukraine simply no longer exist, and thus provide no cover, because of the massive firepower reigned down upon them.
Longer Answer:
Of course APS is not the only factor here, although it is a very important one because it allows armoured vehicles to be used in dense urban environments. Neither the Americans nor the Russias (nor Ukrainians) were able to do this in the above battles because they didn't (and mostly still don't) have APS equipped armoured vehicles.
Israel's highly networked system of firepower coordination that is able to locate sources of fire and other targets and then pound them with massive firepower within seconds is another factor. A bit like Hamas's approach to democracy (one person, one vote, one time, finished), the life of a Hamas fighter is one shot, one time, targeted, finished.
If you can only get one shot off against a very well protected enemy before you are killed then it is very difficult to lay down enough firepower to harm them or stop their advance.
So far I have only been talking about direct firepower. Normally frontline fighters encountering an advancing enemy would call in artillery and air strikes down on the revealed position of the advancing forces.
But here Hamas has a fundamental problem - they have virtually no militarily effective indirect firepower.
They have plenty of terror weapon rockets and missiles for trying to murder civilians, but no artillery, no air power and not even that many mortars. They have some drones but they are likely modified commercial versions useful for a surprise attack but not so usable in mobile warfare.
It has been indirect firepower, particularly artillery that has been used in immense quantities by both sides in Ukraine and has caused the majority of casualties, just like in every war since artillery was invented.
And this explains the astounding lack of IDF combat deaths in the Gaza ground operation to date.
Direct fire is blocked by APS and armoured vehicles and Hamas has almost no indirect fire capability. It is also possible that APS and/or Iron Dome can protect troops against mortars.
What about the tunnels
Hamas's vaunted tunnel system is considered their key strategic asset, but I believe that it is actually their achilles heel.
Here I am moving from analysis of current reality on the ground to more speculative territory.
There are some important facts to understand:
- Gaza is only slightly above sea level;
- Seawater naturally tries to enter tunnels and has to be pumped out;
- Tunnels need a constant supply of fresh air from ventilation systems;
- Fighters need electricity for phones radios, computers, drones etc etc;
- 2, 3 & 4 use a lot of electrical power;
- This electrical power must come mainly from diesel generators;
- Hamas is running out of diesel fuel;
- Generators (even underground) are detectible via their heat and exhaust gases which must be released above ground.
All this provides many opportunities for the IDF to turn the tunnels into the world' biggest cemetery without having to send soldiers deep down into them.
The IDF could simply wait until diesel fuel runs out and the tunnels naturally become death traps from rising water levels and no fresh air.
They could also assist the process by pumping vast amounts of sea water into ever tunnel entrance they find.
They will certainly hit every diesel generator exhaust port with penetrating high explosives.
Tunnel entrances can also be progressively collapsed as they are discovered with well placed explosives by IDF ground, air or naval forces.
A series of coordinated high explosive charges piered deep underground in a large areas pattern could collapse the entire tunnel system like a mini earthquake.
And I'm sure there are many other options.
But there is something even more fundamental. Hamas fighters have to come out of their tunnels to attack the IDF and as soon as they are spotted by the all pervasive ISR they will be hit and killed.
This is what is happening to Hizbollah in Lebanon. Their operatives are being spotted and killed before they can fire their anti-tank weapons and rockets. Hizbollah casualties are so high (50+) for so little result that they have stopped reporting them.
Conclusions
Israel's ground operations against Hamas are progressing very differently (and far more successfully) than Russian or Ukrainian ground operations in Ukraine. Many commentators have stated that the combination of pervasive ISR (including drones) and extremely accurate firepower (both direct and indirect and especially drones) have made mobility and thus wars of manoeuvre impossible.
However Israel is showing that APS technology is a counter to drone, ISR and accurate fire technologies that restores mobility to the battlefield.
As I predicted in one of my earliest Hive posts, APS restores the tank's supremacy on the battlefield, even in urban warfare.
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