Odds Growing For No Snow Saturday

Weather models began backing off overnight with the Saturday system coming up from the south and that trend continues today. One of the big changes is how the models are handling the jet stream in Northeastern Canada which is much stronger then earlier shown. The strengthening jet stream basically acts like a huge weight pushing its force southward. This keeps the system in the south suppressed and jetting pushed out further south. It is being pushed so far south on some models that we may not see very much if anything at all out of this.

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST SATURDAY APRIL 7, 2018

Some of the short term models like the NAM shifted south overnight and inched back a little further north late this morning. The map below shows the changes from yesterday and last night. Others shifted so far south that the northern edge of precipitation winds up south of Cape May New Jersey!

What do we do from a forecast standpoint? Well at this stage it seems that the southern trend of the models today is a hard trend to fight against. Right now I think the best course is to hold on for a little while longer before throwing in the towel on this one. Frankly I hope it does wind up being a non event since I for one am tired and 75.4 inches of snow for the season including 3 storms that produced 10 inches or more is enough for 2 winters let alone one. The last minute northwest trend that tends to show up of course hangs overhead and we have seen many times that trend show up at the last minute. We will remain cautious. If tonght's model series does the same southern trend they we may be able to put this one to bed at that point.