US officials Trump management agrees to the survival of Assad until 2021
US and European officials say the Trump administration is now preparing to accept Assad's survival in power until the next presidential election in 2021, despite the killing of nearly half a million Syrians and the use of chemical weapons systems dozens of times during the war in Syria. Trump's decision comes in contrast to repeated US statements that Assad should step down as part of the peace process.
"The United States wants all of Syria to be united without any role for Bashar al-Assad in the government," Foreign Secretary Rex Tillerson told reporters earlier in October after the Middle East changes. The Assad family is nearing its end, and the only issue is how to achieve that end. "
The US decision reflects limited management options, military realities on the ground, and the success of the Allies (Russia, Iran, Hezbollah) in supporting the besieged Syrian regime.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory over my jihadists and urged Western-backed troops on a surprise visit to Syria on Monday. The Russian decision in 2015 to provide the Syrian regime with the air force is a pivotal turning point for the Syrian regime.
Washington has also intervened in Syria, despite its claim that its intervention in the first place is to fight a preacher. Since 2014, the United States has spent more than $ 14 billion, equivalent to $ 13 million a day in its air campaign against the Islamic state, and has deployed more than 2,000 US troops to advise Syria's democratic forces. However, facts over the past few months have prompted the administration to accept that Assad, whose family ruled Syria for nearly a quarter of a century, may be in power for the next four years.
The overthrow of the Islamic state last October led to a shift in the international focus to how to end the war. Washington has been diplomatically marginalized by the parties that now control the peace process (Russia, Iran and Turkey).
The Trump administration hoped in its early days to cooperate with Russia in the Syrian case. On April 1, however, the US president issued a decision to bomb an Air Force base that had been used for chemical weapons bombing in Khan Sheikhan. More than 80 people were killed by lethal gas. The lion has strangled the lives of helpless men, women and children. Death was slow and brutal for many.
Trump said: Attempts to change Assad's methodology in previous years have failed, and he has failed miserably. Today I call on all civilized nations to join us in our quest to end the massacres, stop the bloodshed in Syria and put an end to terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.
But given political and military realities, US officials now conclude that any transition to power will be based on credible elections by the United Nations.
The physical realities are difficult in Syria, very difficult, as they destroyed large areas of cities and homes, businesses, schools, health care facilities, and infrastructure such as power grids and roads. More than five million Syrians have fled.
Diplomats said the prospect of free and fair elections in Syria, including millions of refugees in dozens of countries, would be an unprecedented challenge, and that it would take time to create a new and more credible Syrian opposition.
The Trump administration says it still wants a political process that includes Assad's departure, but it could take until 2021, until the election cycle decides to remove Assad.
Depending on the results of US elections in 2020, Assad can stay in power after the end of Trump's term. US officials fear Assad could win in the Syrian elections in 2021 in one way or another and remain in power for years to come.