Brief story of KDA price:
Q4 2017 - SAFT Round 1 sold 4.5 million coins at $0.5 per coin
Q1 and Q2 2018 - SAFT Round 2 sold 17.2 million coins at $0.75 per coin
November 2019 - CoinList sold tokens in two batches:
CoinList Non - $1 per coin for Non-US buyers and these coins are fully liquid.
CoinList Global - $0.5 per coin for both US and Non-US ACCREDITED INVESTORS but locked up until December 2020 and will be coming out of the lockup in equal installments in Dec’20, Jan’21, Feb’21.
We don't know what was the total amount sold in the CoinList but it was substantial (total offering size was $20,000,000), I estimate that between 10 to 15 million coins were sold there with price averaging $0.75.
At the beginning of December 2019 OTC trading was going at $1 per coin.
At the end of December 2019 OTC trading was going already at $0.5 per coin.
December 19 - HotBit exchange adds KDA and opening day price was $0.7 but soon, after just 4 days price went down to $0.2 with a bottom at $0.08.
Estimated circulation right now is about 5,000,000 KDA while with release of CoinList Non-US coins and first tranches of SAFT 1&2 it will be roughly 20,000,000 coins. These coins are already liquid but there are no tools to transfer them and esentally only one exchange operating with very low volume.
Monthly unlock which started happening since January 15 2020 is 1.8 million KDA and will be happening until December 2020. Then unlock of CoinList US will proceed. Meanwhile some community and platform tokens will be unlocked committing to a very small part of the supply.
Estimated maximum circulating supply at the end oh 2020 is 70,000,000 KDA.
With current price of $0.2 per KDA that gives us just $14,000,000 market cap which is not possible to maintain for this type of project. I expect the price to reach more than $1.
The reason behind the dump
Kadena team was not expecting that any exchange will list the coin that early, period. They are following SEC rules very strictly that's whay they stated from the beginning that exchange trading is allowed after January 15 2020, and they will support only exchanges following the rules.
However there are foreign exchanges that are not caring about US laws and they can list any token they want. Currently KDA is listed one two exchanges:
HotBit: https://www.hotbit.io/exchange?symbol=KDA_USDT
and
Hoo: https://hoo.com/trade/kda-usdt
However Hoo is a complete unknown to me entity and probably 100% wash trading exchange.
HotBit on the other hand is one of last exchanges that do not facilitate any KYC procedures! Yes you can just register with your email and send any amount of crypto and withdraw it without any issues. A true gem in these hard times.
But HotBit is relatively small and not trusted exchange, moreover crypto community is not aware that KDA is trading - which is a great opportunity for us Kadena Marines to accumulate as much as we can at these ridiculously low prices.
Moreover HotBit had some issues with withdrawals and soon after they started trading the withdrawals had been shut and they reopened them just few days ago.
90% of the vol in HotBit is exchange bots that are market making and miners dumping they cost just to cover the electricity cost but also some of them mine with no electricity cost.
It is very hard to buy more than 20,000 KDA per day there without dumping the price, you can pray to get a dump of 10,000 per day into your low buy order.
Kadena team officially warned against using HotBit and they are not taking responsibility if people buy there and have issues. The official exchange is scheduled for February.
Investors who paid $0.5-$0.75 two years ago in Round 1&2 and CoinList investor who paid $1 would be in a huge loss right now that's why I believe that they won't sell at -80% and these extremely low prices won't happen again.
To sum up why price of Kadena ,,dumped":
- there are no legitimate exchanges
- very low volume exchange without official backing
- there is no Windows wallet
- Mac wallet is in beta and many features are not working or are risky to use
- cross chain transfers are not working and people are losing coins (I lost 1000)
- miners who started mining in November have to dump coins at any price available
- OTC is not enough to cover miners needs