Hi everyone,
Tomorrow the Kexcoin ICO opens, so this is my final word of advice for potential investors.
You can read my previous take here: https://steemit.com/kexcoin/@ograf/kexcoin-ico-why-i-won-t-invest-should-you
Today I just want to add the following points:
I don’t question the opportunity to invest in UK property or the professionalism of Kexgill or the Kexcoin team.
I don’t say ICO investors or people who buy Kexcoin later will lose all their money.
I just say two things:
The potential profits for investors are grossly hyped by the Kexcoin team.
The actual profits will make the Kexcoin team rich, not investors.
And how do I know that? Just using their own simulation. Using their assumptions, here are the actual payouts in dollars (millions when mentioned) for investors, for Kexgill for managing the properties and to investors.
If they manage to sell all the 8.5 M Kexcoins at the ICO and with their basis of $4000 per bitcoin:
If they manage to sell all the 8.5 M Kexcoins at the ICO and with the current price $3620 per bitcoin:
If they only manage to sell half of the 8.5M Kexcoins at the ICO and with the current price $3620 per bitcoin:
If they only manage to sell a third of the 8.5M Kexcoins at the ICO and with the current price $3620 per bitcoin:
As you can see the total payout over 30 years for investors, depending on the ICO success may vary from $26.95 to $99.18 per Kexcoin. At today's bitcoin price, you would pay about $9 per coin.
Of course this is an aggregate view. You may sell your Kexcoins much higher on bitshares along the way, but the buyer at a higher price than the total payout will lose. Ultimately, all Kexcoin holders will ever get is the money Kexcoin pays. All the trading back and forth for the 30 years of the project will be a zero sum game.
My conclusions:
This is not such a stellar deal considering the risk
They keep talking about how liquid the Kexcoin will be, but who would buy it after the ICO, knowing you forfeit the capital gains distribution? As you can see in the simulations the capital gains amounts to about half the total payout. That means Kexcoin value should drop in half after the 48 hour period post ICO. And who would sell right away considering most of the money is made at the end when the property portfolio is much larger and shared among fewer coin holders? Finally, what a great idea to destroy your coins when you want to promote liquidity!
In all scenarios, the Kexcoin team gets paid hundreds of millions for their work without putting a dollar of their own money on the line (they will get 1M free coins but have never said publicly they would put their own money in the ICO).
This in my view is a perversion of capitalism, where the reward should be proportional to the capital you put at risk. Here the model mostly rewards the people who take no risk with their own money.
You are most likely able to invest in property with a much better risk/reward profile through REITS or other financial instruments
There is NO WAY on earth this team could pull this project were we not in the middle of an ICO boom. No professional lender would ever accept these terms.
In other words, they could never get that rich that easily without your money. You could do just as well, if not a lot better without them.
After this if you still want to hand them your money, good luck! They surely deserve to be rich more than you do.
Peace out.
PS: I've been called a troll by the Kexcoin team, but they never bothered explaining which of these facts are wrong.
PPS: You can do the math yourself here:(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K2IOixQtvx_lxIIYcG4i-yTAV8YJhdFB1HXl0mByzFA/edit?usp=sharing) Don't be lazy, or don't complain afterwards.