Bitcoin started falling around 66k and had a bit of a recovery, but some traders were calling 63k resistance, and checking the charts thismorning I see that it hit $63,733 and is on the decline.

If we compare this to the market cycle we may see what is playing out. To me this really appears to be the "return to normal" which will lead to the next phase, Fear. Compounding problems from inflation and rising prices of goods and services, to electricity, natural gas and food, stock market declines or a rising US dollar, are likely to add the problem. Those new to Bitcoin are likely to experience this fear, but Bitcoiners who have been around a few cycles have seen this before.

Do not despair, I have been thinking about this since August. Certainly back then we were in the denial phase, and the dip down to 33k was short lived as a new ATH of $66,727.16 on October 20th, 2021 has sent Bitcoin back into the mainstream spotlight. The big question is, was that a bear trap, or a bull trap? Are we going to see 100k and 200k BTC prices in early 2022?

I don't think so. Even back in 2013 when I started paying attention to Bitcoin after seeing those "Magic Internet Money" ads on Reddit with the BTC wizard, it went to $1000 but after a short bull trap, went all the way down to $210 over the next year, and had another 2 years of accumulation recovery before it hit a new ATH on Jan 3rd 2017. So will collapsing economies, supply chain shortages and desperate bankers and billionaires make it different this time?

Back in August I made a spreadsheet and took high/low patterns from previous cycles to create two scenarios, with the previous all time high of $62,807.00, and projected based on whether the drop in 2022 goes to 30k or 11k, and where it would go from there. This is me doing my own research and extrapolating. I am simply walking you through my thought process here. When I adjusted my charts with the new 2021 ATH of 67,276.79 it hasn't changed the projections all that much.

It might not unfold exactly this way, but it seems that if Bitcoin continues its own patterns, we are certainly in for higher highs, and even bigger crashes. Even if Bitcoin does suffer an 81% correction in 2022 we are still on track for 10m Bitcoin by the end of the decade. I am not the only one saying this, people like Max Kaiser are optimistic and would say Bitcoin is going to a million, but even he wants to see 200k in 2022. It might, but my sheet is telling me it will likely be in 2023.

I can see on BitcoinTicker.co the price flipping between 61999 and 62000, what is next? Orders on the books look like we could trade between 57,000 and 70,000 and now we are back to 61998.48.

Just 15 days ago BTC broke 57k again,

and there are still 924 days until the next halving. Was this "return to normal"?

@darkflame/bitcoin-breaks-57k

One this is abundantly clear for most to see. We need more BTC, but there are only 2,144,731 BTC left to be mined. Every day 900 new coins are minted, but that will drop after May 2024. If you buy $20 a week for 132 weeks, you will have more BTC than you do today. Think about that!