Hello!
Fed cuts incoming??? Yes! The market is anticipating it!
This chart shows the market expectation for the next Federal Reserve meeting on October 29, 2025, and it’s very clear what investors believe will happen. There is a 98.3% probability that the Fed will cut rates, moving the target range from 4.00–4.25% down to 3.75–4.00%. That’s almost a full consensus. Only 1.7% expect no change, and 0% believe the Fed will hike.
This means the market is almost certain that the easing cycle will continue. The Fed is done with tightening, and the next move is down. It’s a big shift compared to the last two years when rates were rising fast to fight inflation. Now it looks like the economy is slowing, debt is high, and the Fed has no choice but to start cutting.
When I see this kind of chart, I don’t just think about interest rates. I think about liquidity. Rate cuts mean more credit, cheaper borrowing, and more money flowing into markets again. It’s like a signal that the liquidity door is opening slowly. Historically, when the Fed starts easing, risk assets like stocks, gold, and especially Bitcoin, begin to react positively.
But this situation is different from other cycles....
Inflation is still high, and DEBT IS UNDER CONTROL!!
Cutting rates might bring short-term relief, but it also risks another inflation wave. The Fed is trapped: they can’t raise rates without breaking the system, and they can’t cut too much without losing control of prices.
The 98.3% probability shows how much the market is relying on the Fed to save the economy again. Investors are already pricing in more cuts ahead, expecting easy money to return. That’s why liquidity-sensitive assets could see strong movements soon.
In short, this chart is not just about rates; it’s about confidence, risk, and the next big turn in the macro cycle. The market already knows: the era of high interest rates is ending, and a new wave of liquidity is on the way.
Stay safe out there! Green incoming?? I think so...