[Herald Economy = Reporter Kim Young-chul] While the Iran War, which broke out in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's airstrike, marks a month on the 28th, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a series of "short supply" shocks not only for oil but also for derived resources such as plastics and helium. International oil prices soared to $130 on the 26th, from $67 a barrel on the 27th of last month, a day before the war broke out. As the possibility of a prolonged oil supply crisis increased, Asian countries with high dependence on Middle Eastern oil began to secure Russian oil one after another.
As oil supply is cut off, the aftermath is spreading to derived resources such as helium and plastic. The Hill, a U.S. political media outlet, reported on Wednesday that the Iranian war is an obstacle to securing helium, a key ingredient in semiconductor manufacturing processes.
Iran's recent attack on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facility in Qatar disrupted the production of helium, which is extracted with gas. Reuters also reported that the attack is expected to reduce Qatar's helium export by 14 percent.
Helium is an essential raw material used to cool wafers and precisely control temperature in semiconductor manufacturing processes. Experts pointed out that although the situation is unlikely to lead to an immediate blow to the semiconductor industry, companies could face cost pressure if the situation is prolonged.
Hanner Dorman, a senior researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and New Technology, said, "This incident does not seem to have hit the semiconductor industry yet, but it will not be easy to secure alternative supply lines in the future due to high-purity helium standards and strict verification procedures required by semiconductor manufacturers."
The global chemical supply chain is also faltering as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.
According to Reuters, the supply of petrochemical products worth 20 billion dollars to 25 billion dollars a year was cut off from the flow of petrochemical products passing through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, prices of plastics and polymers widely used from automobile parts to toys soared to the highest level in about four years. The Middle East is a key supplier of polyethylene, which accounts for more than 40 percent of global exports as of last year. It has supplied products to almost all regions except North America, mainly Saudi Arabia. Since the conflict, the prices of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) have been soaring along with rising prices of crude oil and raw materials. In fact, PE prices based on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen by about 37% and PP by more than 38% since the end of February.
"Logistical uncertainty has widened significantly since the Middle East, with up to 50% of global polyethylene supply shut down or constrained," Dow CEO Jim Petering said.
As crude oil supply disruptions continue, Asian countries that have relied on Middle Eastern crude oil are turning to Russian crude oil as a countermeasure. Reuters said Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka are recently purchasing Russian oil to secure alternative suppliers.
The Philippines resumed importing Russian oil for the first time in five years after introducing about 1.5 million barrels of oil from the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Pipeline (ESPO). Thailand is also in talks with Russia over the possibility of introducing oil, while Sri Lanka is also reportedly discussing supply. Vietnam has requested Russia's state-owned energy company Zarubezneft to expand investment and provide long-term oil.
"The market believes that prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East will intensify competition in Asia over Russian oil," Reuters said. "Some predict that the instability of the global energy market could increase if Russia's supply capacity limits are combined."
김영철 yckim6452@heraldcorp.com
Ultimately, a crisis affecting the entire economy is approaching.
Does Trump even have a solution to this?