According to the WSJ, in recent days, President Trump and his staff have determined that the war will exceed President Trump's target period of four to six weeks if the U.S. tries to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. After achieving the main goal of weakening Iran's naval and missile power, President Trump has decided to reduce military operations and diplomatically pressure Iran to resume free trade. If diplomatic pressure fails, the U.S. plans to pressure its European and Gulf allies to lead the reopening of the strait, administration officials told WSJ.
In response, Susan Mulroney, an Iran expert at the think tank Brookings Institution, criticized it as "incredibly irresponsible" to end the war without opening the Strait of Hormuz. "The energy market is inherently global," he said. "It is already underway, and there is no way to isolate the United States from the economic damage that will become much worse if the blockade of the strait continues."
Some point out that President Trump's Hormuz response policy is inconsistent. He threatened to bomb Iran's civilian energy facilities if the strait is not opened by a certain deadline, and he downplayed the importance of closing the strait, saying that it is a bigger problem for other countries than the U.S. On the 30th, Iran's current leadership evaluated it as "more reasonable" on social media, but threatened to hit key infrastructure, including power plants, oil fields, and Karg Island oil export hubs, if a deal was not reached.
White House press secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters that the U.S. was working to keep the channel operating normally, but did not mention opening the channel as one of its key military goals. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview with Al Jazeera on the same day that the operation to achieve the military goal would be completed within weeks. "After that, we face the Hormuz issue, which Iran decides to do, or the coalition of countries around the world that the U.S. participates in, will somehow open the channel," Rubio added.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant also suggested in a Fox News interview that the U.S. or multinational groups are escorting tankers, saying, "The market is sufficiently supplied, and the number of ships passing through the strait is increasing every day as individual countries reach a tentative agreement with Iran."
The financial market reacted quickly after the WSJ reported that President Trump was willing to end the military operation against Iran even if the blockade of the Channel continued. According to Bloomberg News, S&P 500 futures rose 1%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1% as it fell below $102 per barrel. WTI surpassed $100 per barrel at its closing price for the first time in four years since 2022, and surged more than 50% in March, marking the largest monthly increase since May 2020. Some financial analysts predicted that oil prices could soar to $200 per barrel if the channel disruptions are prolonged. U.S. government bonds continued to strengthen, and the dollar weakened against the G10 currency. Gold prices rose 1.4% to trade around $4580 per ounce, while silver surged 3%.
The Asian stock market started lower on the news of Iran's attack on the Dubai oil tanker. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index once fell 1.3 percent, returning its annual gains and heading for its biggest monthly fall since October 2008, but it has reduced its fall since the WSJ report.
However, market experts are cautious about optimism. "Risk assets were waiting for a rebound," said Anna Wu, a strategist at VanEck. "This report has not yet been agreed upon or finalized." "This report could be a trigger for short-term volatility, but it is too early to read as a sign of an end to the conflict," Pepperstone strategist Dilyn Wu said.
The Strait of Hormuz is located between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran and is a strategic point connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 84% and 83% of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) that passed the strait as of 2024 were headed to Asia, respectively. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz as of 2025, which is about 25% of the world's maritime oil trade.
Meanwhile, about 40 countries, including the UK, France, and Canada, recently declared that they are ready to contribute to efforts to ensure safe passage of the strait.
Seong Ju-won (sjw1@edaily.co.kr )
You should abandon the idea that Trump has some kind of grand strategy. In reality, he seems to have no plan at all and simply reacts impulsively. That’s the problem.