U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 23rd (local time) that the ongoing end-of-war negotiations with Iran have reached the "final stage." The U.S. and Iran are said to draw a draft memorandum of understanding (MOU), an agreement to end the war, and refine the details at the last minute.
President Trump said on Truth Social, a social network service (SNS), that negotiations to halt the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz have reached the final stage. "Agreement among various other countries has been largely negotiated, and now only final confirmation is left," he said. "The final issue and details of the agreement are currently being discussed, and they will be announced soon." However, he did not specify the timing of the announcement.
In response, U.S. media Axios quoted U.S. government officials as saying that a draft MOU was drawn for an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war, and details were being coordinated on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the relocation of uranium enrichment, and the timing and method of sanctions relief. The U.S. and Iran are said to be considering setting the validity period of the MOU to 60 days for now, but allowing it to be extended under a mutual agreement. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency also reported on the 24th that the draft of a potential MOU between the United States and Iran included a ban on mutual preemptive strikes and the partial resumption of the Strait of Hormuz.
Officials from both countries also hinted that negotiations are imminent. U.S. Secretary of State Marko Rubio, who is visiting India, told reporters on Sunday that there is a possibility to announce something, whether it is today or tomorrow, or in a few days, indicating that an announcement of an end-of-war deal is imminent. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai also confirmed through Iranian state media that the two countries are close to finalizing the 14-point MOU aimed at ending the war, adding to the possibility of reaching a deal.
The development came shortly after Qatar and Pakistan's special envoy visited Tehran and engaged in intensive diplomatic activities. Gen. Asim Munir, the commander-in-chief of Pakistan's power elite, met with Ahmad Bahidi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a key figure in Iran's decision-making process, and continued behind-the-scenes negotiations with senior Iranian officials in Tehran.
President Trump has been pressing Iran for an agreement by bringing up a military option card. Earlier, in an interview with Axios early on the 23rd, President Trump evaluated the possibility of an agreement with Iran as "about 50-50" and warned that the U.S. could "completely devastate" Iran if the negotiations fail. In addition, Truth Social shared an image of an American flag covering the map of Iran, provoking Iran with the title "America in the Middle East?" It was interpreted as an open threat to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure and energy facilities if the negotiations break down.
However, within the U.S. government, it was already leaning toward negotiations rather than war with Iran, according to the Washington Post (WP). President Trump's military threat was a strategic pressure to bring Iran to the negotiating table. Axios also said that President Trump has been struggling between a large-scale military attack on Iran and a diplomatic settlement until recently, but is now leaning toward a diplomatic solution.
A U.S. official told Axios, "If Iran is judged not to be serious about the nuclear deal, the possibility of the MOU being canceled in less than 60 days cannot be ruled out. However, as Iran's economic crisis is serious, the lifting of U.S. sanctions and the lifting of the freeze on funds will be a motivation to reach a final agreement." The official continued, "It will be interesting to see how far Iran is actually willing to go," adding, "If Iran is capable and willing to change, this step will be an important decision on what they want to be like as a country."
San Francisco= Correspondent Park Ji-yeon (jyp@hankookilbo.com )
“I don’t know how this agreement will turn out, but if it’s merely an extension of the already agreed nuclear deterrence period, it would serve as a prime example proving Trump’s incompetence.
Incompetence, at times, can be the greatest of sins.”