Why The Euro Was Always Destined To Fail

Ill admit when the Euro was introduced in the late 90s, it seemed like a noble idea. Hypothetically with one currency, countries that were so close together could more easily transact with each other and tourists would be able to just buy one currency if they were travelling through Europe. However, if you read articles at the time, many very smart economists were warning of future problems with the currency that have now come to fruition. The basic fact of the matter is, grouping governments with entirely different ideals, ways of life and people under one currency and one Central bank is an idea that is doomed from the start.

We have seen in the past five years multiple Euro based countries that have either needed to be bailed out or required stimulus. However because one government does not control the central bank, they must rely on their peers to okay the help. I hate Central Banks and the Federal Reserve as much as the next person, but the way our current fiat based economy works, without complete control of a central bank, you cant fully take actions to help control your economy. Governments have two main options they can take when it comes to using a central bank to help economic growth, one would be lowing or raising interest rates and another would be printing money. A government that can print endless amounts of money will almost never default but they will all faith from foreign investors or piss off their own people and leaders will be unelected. If Greece had the power to print currency during its crises, they would have never defaulted. Taking away essential tools that modern governments use to influence their economies will eventually lead to countries switching back because of pressure.

Next , probably the most important part is grouping together multiple countries that have different people, beliefs and ways of life under a single currency. I recently wrote an article about smaller countries and how they can be more effective and there is a reason for that. Greek people have totally different monetary ideas and beliefs than German people, yet they are grouped under the same currency. It doesn’t matter if Greece’s system is worse, Germany will then need to pick up the slack. If Germany had any real pull on Greece’s government, things might be different , but as it stands they can only make recommendations and scold bad behavior. Other countries have no real way to force a bad actor to abide by the rules, other than kicking them out, which is near impossible with how things are put together. This was one of the major skepticisms in the 90s when the Euro was proposed, but people were blinded by the possibility of economic prosperity that they ignored fundamental problems with a system that was going to largely change an entire continent.

There are ways to fix the Euro to make it work, especially in the digital age, but it would require every country to go back to their own currencies, while still accepting the euro as well. If we were using completely digital money and could easily make the transfer between, say the Sterling and the Euro, this could be easily done, but today that is not the case. If we wanted to group a group of countries into one economic union, in my opinion, we would need a reserve currency controlled by no central bank or influenced by any institution, with a capped amount, that countries could transact with eachother in and freely move between their own currency and this reserve currency. Because countries will still have the power of their own central banks, they can use their tools to influence the economy in how they see fit, while still having a reserve currency that would reflect the change.

This is where I originally saw the possible use case for bitcoin, or a cryptocurrency like it, which is what made me excited. Rather than a Euro which is influenced by a private bank, a decentralized global currency that countries would transact in and everyone around the world would accept because it would instantly go into their own currency is the end game in my opinion. Many countries settle deals in currencies that can be just as volatile as their own, but if we have a global currency, it would act as a way to pit all existing currencies against each other to reflect the purchasing power of each one.

The Euro was destined to fail by design from the beginning because of the fundamental differences that human beings have. Even if they are just a few hundred miles away, their beliefs and ideas about money and how government and economies should work can be entirely different. Putting these people under the same currency was a foolish idea. In my opinion, I completely expect the Euro to not exist in another 20-30 years, if not earlier. Already countries are threatening to back out and its only a matter of time before the prosperous countries with good monetary policy, that are picking up the slack of others are going to say they have had enough. Let me know what you guys personally think below.

-Calaber24p