The European model has done much better than the US model in predicting Irma's path.
Landfall of the main eye in Florida is imminent. Key West is a couple hours out.
The hurricane is more than 200 miles wide. Dodging the main track doesn't mean you are home free.
Naples and Fort Myers will take glancing but still very solid and substantial blows. Wind speeds in excess of 100 miles per hour. With potential for an amazing 15 foot storm surge.
Irma has her eyes set on a direct hit on Tampa Bay. Wind speeds in excess of 110 miles per hour and a substantial storm surge.
Best case result for Florida happens if Irma's predicted track keeps drifting slowly to the West, and the winds continue to slow down. Landfall as CAT3 will be better than landfall as CAT4 or CAT5. The European model has repeatedly indicated this could happen. The track predictions are being revised every three hours. The predicted track keeps drifting West at the rate of a couple miles per hour, every time the predicted track is revised. We need Irma to keep sliding to the West.
Prayers with all in the path and all impacted by Hurricane Irma.
STEEM On!!
DaveB