Yesterday was overall a bit of a downer for two significant reasons. One being that my good friends had to travel back home after some cool time spent here in London. The other was the crypto market prices. It turns out that the ETF authority have postponed it's decision concerning Bitcoin to September 30th. Just over a month after when it was initially due to take place in August. But the market reacted pretty badly to this news, so where does this leave us now?
Well, a critical level of support has now been broken. That being $6800. I was really hoping that it'd hold, but alas it wasn't to be. Since last evening, we've been in somewhat of a spiralling mini free fall. Price as of now is $6465 according to Bitstamp. Therefore, the way I see it, this price action should set off several mild alarm bells ringing. Looks likely that the next port of call should eventually be that old chestnut, the $6000 mark. However, it has already been tested three times already so this presents a bit of a quandary. Normally, the more times a strong support (or resistance) is hit, the weaker it gets. As what happened last night with the $6800 level. Safe to say then, we currently appear to be in a sort of "limbo" as far as price is concerned.
Now, that's not to say it is a bad time to average in. I still reckon a gradually buying up of BTC "until" we see a clean break of $6000, is a sound idea. But if, or when, said break occurs, I'd recommend holding tight and keeping your portfolio the way it is. A drop to $3000 to $3500 would not be off the table under those conditions. Another point I'd like to make.
There is a useful chart indicator that is quite indicative of price and has certainly been spot on with BTC in the past. The "MACD" (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). This analysis tool combined with the weekly time chart actually show a more optimistic view of what we may happen in the near(ish) future. Without getting too technical, both line averages have fallen into "negative" territory, showing that we are approaching oversold levels in the longer term charting windows. So, if that is the case, then we should be finding a bottom relatively soon. And if price continues to march downward a little more, then the "rubber band" as it were, will be stretching even tighter, loading up for an even stronger bullish thrust upward. Again, only my personal observations when attempting to work out these markets. But, I like to think, reliable ones.
So, all in all, I feel now is more important than ever to just sit tight and play out the rest of this "waiting game" in a logical and emotion-free manner. Remember, all markets are simply swings and roundabouts, a series of peaks and troughs. The bullish market will return with a vengeance and when it does, be properly stocked up for the multipliers to kick in. Those previous glory days are coming back again and it shouldn't be too long now...
