We often hear that every person is master of own happiness, and if you will work a lot and hard, you will reach any goal and can become anyone you want, your future is in your hands.
But more and more studies in recent years show that the future of man depends heavily on his abilities and possibilities in childhood. Today, with a high probability of success in childhood can be determine future scientists, academics and billionaires, as well as "losers" with chronic illnesses, thrust to the crimes and the unwillingness to work.
image source
Recently were published the results of 40 years of research, which aims to determine the impact of skills and abilities inherent in childhood on future success. The study included 1037 people born in the same city in New Zealand, in 1972-1973.
During the first decade of life were selected several key factors that have an effect on a child's future: socio-economic conditions in which the child grew up, complete or incomplete family, the presence of abuse - beatings, IQ, and degree of self-control and discipline of the child. In the final evaluation was attended by people who have reached 40 years of age.
Examining 40 years of data array, scientists have identified certain patterns of children's skills with future economic success, health, employment, benefit to society etc. applying a segmentation of the population they have identified a certain group of people, which owns a higher % of negative results/ effects, these people, according to scientists in a sense, "losers".
image source
Under the negative effects, scientists mean the factors that are harmful to the social and economic spheres of society. For example increase the tax burden - the maintenance of criminals, the costs of the sick and the unemployed.
I will not fully describe the results of studies, of course they confirmed: the worse the key factors of the child's state, the worse performance in the future - a logical pattern (also managed to get a few interesting relationships with the level of IQ and crime).
But the most valuable and interesting were the following conclusions: The Pareto principle works in relation to the results of these studies! 80% of all negative effects and results in the future accounted for 22% of children.
image source
Pareto principle in general states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. The most striking example of this law: 20% of people own 80% of wealth the whole world. This principle finds wide application in economics, management and political science, and even in RISC (Reduced instruction set computing).
So 20-22% of people in the control showed the following results:
- 80% of all crimes among all subjects
- 78% of obtaining pharmaceutical prescriptions (i.e., health problems)
- 77% as adults have an incomplete family
- 66% receive social benefits
The data represent information about 940 people who were born in one hospital in the period 1972–1973 and are lifelong participants in the Dunedin Longitudinal Study. a–h, A minority of individuals is shown to account for a majority of outcomes in a birth cohort for each of eight different social and health sectors: social welfare (a), fatherless children (b), smoking (c), excess obese kilograms (d), hospital stays (e), prescription fills (f), injury claims (g) and crime (h). Each panel displays the cumulative distribution of an outcome in the cohort.
Hence the following problem: if you pull up the "losers" to the average level in statistical sampling there will be other 20% of "losers", and so on to infinity. 20% "losers" will always be. The Criminals and the unemployed will become more educated, capable and talented than before. This is a Pareto distribution in probability theory in action.
This assumption is confirmed by additional checks: Scientists re-divided social groups into a new sub-group, it was found that among the poor there is a group of 20%, which makes 80% of crimes. Similarly, in the richest group revealed 20% that commit 80% of crimes.
We got a disappointing conclusion: by affecting on factors in childhood we can't to improve the social and economic future of man, but we have the option to make him smarter and more talented. There will always be people who can't succeed in the system. Statistics is an area which is difficult to argue, but I want to believe that we can change these figures in the future.
sources: Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden, Pareto principle, The disturbingly accurate brain science that identifies potential criminals while they’re still toddlers, Miserable future images from Google search.