Are we living in a time of "long-lasting peace"? A statistical analysis of the interstate wars of the past 200 years can't confirm that.
There are optimists, such as people who believe that our monetary system continues to exist forever. They also exist in politics. In the social sciences, there is often a certain pessimism about the future of humanity. One of the best-known optimists today is the American psychologist Steve Pinker, who has already published two voluminous books on it, in which he shows messianically that the world is getting better and why the pessimists are wrong.
People would always live better, longer, healthier and happier. In his book on violence - it has 1200 pages - he tries to demonstrate that violence has declined since the beginning of settled life and that since the end of World War II a "long time of peace" exists.
Since then there have not been any major wars between major powers or higher developed states. Since 1989, the "New Peace" reigns with a decline in all organized conflicts. Cause were things like state formation with monopoly power, enlightenment and good sense, feminization, globalization, cosmopolitanism and international trade. The last forces are being opposed today by the new right-wing nationalists.
According to Pinker, the percentage of years in which great powers fought has fallen dramatically since 1500, as has the frequency of wars and the duration of these. However, the number of deaths increased in wars, which decreased again after the Second World War. At present, it is hard to believe that it will become more peaceful when the major powers are in the midst of a new arms race, many states are strengthening their military and there is the danger of nuclear war again.
On average, an inter-state war broke out every 1.91 years
The computer scientist and statistician Aaron Clauset of the University of Colorado Boulder has now looked at the intergovernmental wars between 1823 and 2003 in a study published in the journal Science Advances against the background of the postulated Long and New Peace after the "time of great violence".
His intention was to find out if this is a continuing trend, especially if, over the past 30 years, the number of interstate wars actually fell sharply. He also wanted to find out if a statement about the probability of new wars over the next 100 years from the analysis of the past 200 years can be made.
In the 180 years investigated, according to Clauset, who refers to historical sources, there were 95 interstate wars. The death toll varies from 1000, the minimum for a war, to the 16 million soldiers who died in World War II.
A trend towards peace would be that the time between wars gets longer. In the period considered, the time varies between 0 years, when different wars take place in the same year, and 18 years, the time between the Russo-Turkish War (1828) and the Mexican-American War (1846). Long interruptions are unusual. On average, a war broke out in 1823 every 1.91 years. In 8 percent of the cases, several wars broke out in the same year, most of the wars ended after two years.
The period after the Second World War (1940-2003) does not differ from previous period (1828-1939) according to this analysis. Thereafter, there is no trend in the sequence of wars after the beginning of the Second World War. The "Long Peace" is referred to as the altered frequency of larger wars that have caused more than 26,000 casualties.
Between 1823 and 1939 there were 19 major wars, averaging every 6.2 years, and especially during the period of great violence between 1914 and 1939 with 10 wars and a new war every 2.7 years. On the other hand, after 1940 there were only 5 major wars, so an average of every 12.8 years.
This may look like a decreasing trend. But that's wrong, says Clauset, who compared the historical pattern with different simulations. There have been long periods of relatively few wars before - nothing unusual.
On the other hand, the "time of great violence" is more unusual because of the many dead. 42 percent of the major wars occurred in 15 percent of the time. Statistically, the time after the "time of great violence" only corrected or normalized the deflection. To make a truly plausible trend, the "Long Peace" would have to remain so for at least another 100 years, with a major war 12.8 every years.
What is the probability of a next major war?
If, like Clauset, one assumes that it is statistically a stationary process, then one could assume that there is a likelihood of a huge war with one billion dead. This would be conceivable through a nuclear war, even if in the past such wars did not exist.
If the probability is between 383 and 11,489 years, this is not reassuring because the median would be 1339 years. That would be far away for us, but not so long for the history of humanity, especially as it would then be a global catastrophe. The likelihood of wartime deaths, as in World War I, is relatively high at the average probability of 1.91 years.
Well, let's hope the now existing wars end as soon as possible.
I doubt both - Clauset and Pinker. Both have an extreme view on reality. I think the truth is - as it is so often - somewhere in-between.
Happy steeming!
