The chance that we can limit the warming by the end of this century to 2 degrees is only 5 percent.
The chance that the Earth has warmed between 21 and 4,9 degrees by 2100 is up to 90 percent. That puts researchers in the Nature Climate Change magazine. They rely on statistical research.
Climate agreement
A few years ago, government leaders from all over the world put their signature under the Paris climate agreement. In that agreement, the Heads of Government promised to make every effort to reduce global warming. Very concretely, the government ruled that, by 2100, the earth should not be more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times. The signatories even went one step further and sought to limit global warming by the year 2100 to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But how feasible are climate goals?
GDP
This is how American researchers have bent. The researchers focused on three factors underpinning the different scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions: the number of people on earth, gross domestic product per capita and emission intensity (how much CO2 is there for each dollar Economic activity is expelled). The researchers predict the developments that these various factors will continue in the years to come, based on the developments they have undergone over the past 50 years. And on that basis, they can say more about future emissions and warming. And the picture is little rosy.
The results
"Our analysis shows that the goal of 2 degrees is a best case scenario," says researcher Adrian Raftery. "It is feasible, but only with enormous constant efforts on all fronts over the next eighty years (...) Our analysis is in line with previous estimates, but indicates that the most optimistic projections are unlikely to go through."
According to researchers, there is a chance that the Earth will warm 2 degrees or less by 2100, just five percent. The chance that we can limit the warming by 2100 to a maximum of 1.5 degrees is only 1 percent. And there is a 90 percent chance that the Earth is warmed between 2 and 4.9 degrees by the end of the century.
What do you guys think about this?