How does the failure of a politician's predictions act as definitive proof for a hoax?

If I predicted that Jeff Horn would win in the 6th by KO against Manny Pacquiao, I would be wrong. My prediction would be wrong.

However, Jeff Horn still beat Pacquiao. My prediction was wrong. I as an individual was wrong. But, the underlying reality was still that Jeff Horn won.

Predictions fail all the time. Truth is built up over time with an aggregation of facts from multiple sources.

Plants appear to be adapting to a warming, not a mini-ice age.

The oceans appear to be reacting to a warming, not a mini-ice age.

Aggregating that data forms a narrative, and not the other way around.