05 May 2019 | Darcy K. Butcher, MA, Journalist | Pacific Rim International
BITCOIN FORECAST
Bitcoin has been hitting the top of trend line. BTC had dropped down to the 21 daily moving average. It closed above a key level, the 50 SMA on the weekly. Bulls pushed Bitcoin well above the 50 weekly moving average, which usually acts as a major resistance in any market. A lot of caution has been in play. Until Bitcoin closes below the 21 Bears remain in the shadows. Although Bitcoin saw a move above 0.618 fibonacci ($5400 range) and the 1.72 ($5804) a lack of volume has not sustained these upper levels. Heavy resistance sits $5800 - $6000. There is some indication that this upper limit for Bitcoin has been sustained as the Tether FUD with Bitfinex necessitated a higher ranges to clear out held short positions (shorts have not reduced their risk/exited and are trapped).
Key Points
- Larger scale range: $4326 - $6300
- Bitcoin Bulls must hold $5500, then $5000 -$5150, $4135
- Monthly (April) closed above the 21 EMA
- Resistance and bearish divergence: RSI is making lower highs, volume is declining, top of trend line exhausted
- If Bitcoin moves and closes above $6800 on this first attempt a Bull Market would be certain
- Nailed the 0.786 $5700 (on one exchange)
- Retest range: $5782 - $5840
- Ultimate Consolidation for Bears: $2450 - $2650
$6000 IS A KEY LEVEL FOR BITCOIN
The general consensus for the first six months of 2018 was that $6,000 was the bottom in Bitcoin. Furthermore the outlook has been that the Bear market will likely end in 2019. Many investors who entered the market before the last Bull run and held are trapped at just above $6000 price range. The $6000 range is therefore significant resistance/placement to sell trapped positions still being held. For this reason some indication is in that testing at and above this threshold Bitcoin can see a sudden and abrupt sell off occur causing a possible flash crash to complete capitulation. Others see slow grinding in either direction because lack of sustained volume. This time in the market is also defined as accumulation for both the private and public sectors.
Weekly Moving Average
50 MA $5411
Monthly Moving Average
30 MA $5346
Topside Resistance
$5777 - $6050
IF Consolidation, Possible Bounce:
$5300 - $5420
Bollinger Bands
- 4th week on top side of bollinger bands
- $5564 is outside on the top side
- Pull back to the mean line would be $4155
- Bottom is $2745
TD
- 3-Day TD 1 and 2 new flip to red
- Weekly bleeding TD9
- Daily TD6 bleeding and reaching exhaustion
GAPS - CME FUTURES
- Upper gaps filled in this range: $5454, $5480
- On the downside, In play to be filled: $5240, $4900, $4390
NOTABLE HASHRATE FOR #BTC
- Has now climbed to a high since the last bull run
- Increase in hash rate plus increasing prices on bitcoin miners could be a indication of exiting bear market
FEAR AND GREED INDEX
#LITECOIN
- Must hold $74.50
- Target below: $66.00
#TRON
#TRX must hold 2.45 or down to .02
#NEO
- Break down to $8.25 possible
#EOS
- Looking to test upper trend line - $5.50
- Low side is $4.65
#BCH
- Ranging $211 - $248
- Key Resistance and Hold is $225
#BNB
- Resistance $22.50 - $23.00
- Downside T1: $19.80, T2: $17.50
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RVN: RSoGtGuYYwNL8L7hYZEZNU6gHi92AQ6bWB
BTC: 17ensjJ2gaKfNfaZhzU7cEtJmV1Govtqq
LTC: LPKiZK65DFCoVQu7RAAizK1cCj4C9qcAHg
BNB: 0x2a19200dec8b815035960ad703e03a3f7796bbfd
Darcy K. Butcher, MA. BA Print & Photo Journalism
Writer, Print and Photo Journalist, Blockchain Educator
I am interested in cryptocurrency as a social, cultural, financial point of view.
For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. DYOR
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