07 March 2019 | Darcy K. Butcher, Journalist | Pacific Rim International
LITECOIN LTC FORECAST
TESTING AREA OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE
A lot of day is left here on LTC and the next 8 hours is critical. A possible retest of top range of $58.00 is in. If Litecoin breaks up with volume it would be in position to form a higher high since mid November of 2018. Possible sell down as traders take profit is dually noted. And it's not over till it's over.
- NEW high range possible $58 -70 with volume confirmation
- Hitting upper resistance of major trend line
- An ascending braiding wedge is forming (typically bearish)
- Breaking $57.50 - 58.50 range with volume would be bearish
- Below $55.5 would be signal to downside action
- Bearish Divergence signaling on low time frames (Stoch)
- Losing some momentum on lower time frames, chilling a bit
Notable: When at major resistance points positions where one is waiting for confirmation (either direction) are indicated for most.
SEE RECENT UPDATE ON LTC by PROUDCLOWN (Tradingview.com)
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LTCUSDT/glNNEmeN-More-Upward-Pressure-for-at-Least-15-More-Hours-in-Near-Term/
BITCOIN, BTC FORECAST
Current Price Action is pushing up to resistance. Stoch 4-hour heading upwards and pushing against resistance. Higher time frames signaling upward testing. Daily still stands at $3780 on the 21 EMA and a break would signify the next medium term trend. Bulls need to break the 89 EMA $3900 - 3940 with volume for continued momentum. If BTC fails to make new highs on lower time frames this is grounds for bearish divergence.
4-HOUR
- Showing Bearish Divergence
- Short range move was $3820 -3870
CRITICAL
- Monthly is below 50 and this indicates a possible downside resolution
- 21 crossing the 50 would signal resolution to consolidation
- Strong Resistance at $3920
- Bull volume with confirmation would take aim at $4200-4900 on upside
- $3940 BTC hitting 89 EMA and seeing some declining indicators
- Below 3780 is considered consolidation signal
- General consolidation would range $3400-3650
BEARISH AND BULLISH SCENARIOS
TradingView: Cryspo
The bearish scenario and bearish similarities:
Most are long and expecting a move to $5k so it's always a good idea to cover the contrarian view and see if we can pick holes in either argument.
We retraced to around $3900 (not too far from the $3930 retracement target in my previous post) but it looks like we'll be retesting this uptrend support soon.
Looking at the weekly chart, it seems that after being rejected from EMA200, bitcoin might just be printing another triangle, similar to the one printed towards the end of 2018.
Then we were sandwiched between EMA50 and EMA100 and now we have the same dilemma between EMA200 and SMA200. We also have major trend line resistance from our ATH which we should be approaching sometime in April if this triangle resistance holds, otherwise sometime later in March if our triangle resistance lies a bit higher.
In 2018, we had a similar triangle setup starting from 30 April 2018. The downside target, based on the height of the triangle, was 42% from breakout and ended up reaching 43.5% when we dropped from $6150 to $3175 before retracing.
Interestingly, the 138.2 - 161.8 fib extension of the drop on 30 April 2018 (which forms the height of the triangle), is also roughly the channel range which we have been following since early December 2018 ($3195 - $4180).
If we have a repeat breakdown from the current triangle, we would have broken below our weekly SMA200 support and a close below it would be a first for bitcoin . I suspect we will retest SMA200 after breaking down and the drop will happen from that ATH trendline resistance.
Target based on the height of the triangle is 29% and the same 138.2 - 161.8 fib extension would provide a new channel range between $2330 and $2630, potentially until we meet that trend resistance again, where we either breakout or breakdown again sometime in August 2019.
We have hidden bearish divergence on stochrsi (which is also venturing into oversold territory), and by comparing volume profiles, we can see that volume has been gradually decreasing, similar to 2018 just before the drop. This is just an alternative scenario seeing as we might still be in wave 4, but we'll know as we approach that triangle apex.
The wave 4 scenario to $5k first (if this isn't wave 4, we might still be completing wave 3):
TradingView: Cryspo
Litecoin (LTC) is a cryptocurrency and an open-source project released in 2017, inspired by and very close technically to Bitcoin. The key idea of the project was to make a faster and cheaper to use alternative to Bitcoin
Although there are some similarities between BTC and LTC, you can’t define Litecoin without pointing out some key differences, such as instant and near-zero cost transactions, increased speed of adding a new block into the Blockchain (2.5 minutes against 10 in the Bitcoin network) and a scrypt usage in its Proof-of-Work process to make it easier for regular PC users to mine new blocks against ASIC miners. It is also one of the first cryptocurrencies that adopted SegWit.
Bitcoin (BTC) is known as the first open-source, peer-to-peer, digital cryptocurrency that was developed and released by a group of unknown independent programmers named Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008. Cryptocoin doesn’t have any centralized server used for its issuing, transactions and storing, as it uses a distributed network public database technology named blockchain, which requires an electronic signature and is supported by a proof-of-work protocol to provide the security and legitimacy of money transactions. The issuing of Bitcoin is done by users with mining capabilities and is limited to 21 million coins. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap surpasses $138 billion and this is the most popular kind of digital currency. Buying and selling cryptocurrency is available through special Bitcoin exchange platforms or ATMs.
SOURCES:
LTC and BTC Summary: Cointelegraph.com
Tip Wallet - Contribute to Darcy's work here:
BTC: 17ensjJ2gaKfNfaZhzU7cEtJmV1Govtqq
LTC: LPKiZK65DFCoVQu7RAAizK1cCj4C9qcAHg
ETH: 0x2a19200dec8b815035960ad703e03a3f7796bbfd
BAT: 0x2a19200dec8b815035960ad703e03a3f7796bbfd
Darcy K. Butcher, MA. BA Print & Photo Journalism
Writer, Print and Photo Journalist, Blockchain Educator
I am interested in cryptocurrency from a social, cultural, financial point of view.
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For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. DYOR
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