Alanc's UFC picks 2: UFC Fight Night 92
Last week I was 3/3 in picking 2:1 underdogs! So get your bets in!
As usual, All of the picks I’ve made I bet on before posting.
My method is a little different from what you might expect. I am not trying to pick winners, I am trying to find positive expectation. My experience is that positive expectation is way easier to find in underdogs than in favorites in MMA. I’m only going to comment on the fights that I believe to have positive expectation. I spend a couple of hours researching each of my picks including watching the last few fights of each fighter, so I really can’t give all of my reasons for my picks, instead, they’re distilled into broad strokes.. Odds posted are in decimal format and are current at the time of my betting. Fights not discussed are fights I couldn't find value in betting on.
Horacio Gutierrez 2.82 - Teruto Ishihara 1.42
Pick: Horacio Gutierrez. Here we have two newcomers; both TUF runners up (Ishihara had a draw). Information on their camps is pretty minimal. They are both fairly dynamic strikers. Teruto, is definitely better known, and has a nice finish of a UFC minnow. I could find next to no good information on Horacio Gutierez. His profile on sherdog.com doesn't even include his age. I watched his only professional fight on UFC fight pass (a loss to Enrique Barzola) and decided it was virtually irrelevant to the fight in question (Barzola took him down and ground and pounded him most of the fight for a decision, I think this fight will be a striking battle). I believe Teruto is the favorite because his last performance was a dominant KO win over Julian Erosa. This is why I believe there is value here in betting on Gutierrez, one fight against a no-name is the primary reason for the odds.
Dominique Steele 2.71 vs Court Mcgee 1.48
Pick: Dominique Steele. I'm not happy about this pick, I almost didn't bet, so I bet a smaller amount than I normally would. Even though I think Court deserves to be the favorite, my gut just kept yelling, "smothering wrestlers present a problem for everyone, especially Jui-Jitsu guys like Court". And that was enough for me to risk a very small percentage of my fight bankroll on Steele to win.
Alex Caceres 3.25 Vs Yair Rodriguez 1.33
Pick: Alex Caceres. This may be a really dumb pick for me. Yair has looked phenomenal in all of his fights, dynamic, creative and amazing kicks. His ground game is pretty impressive too. Caceres has looked pretty good in his past couple, and his fight with Uriah Faber made me see that he can face adversity (even if he did lose that fight). It is tough to imagine where Caceres might have an advantage, not striking, not ground, clinch? Hence the good odds! What makes this fight a pick for me is that Alex Caceres trains at MMA Labs in Glendale Arizona, a world class, top team. He's looked better and better since he's been there, and they have had a long time to train for this fight. Yair's team is not nearly as strong. So, while Yair is more creative and has more dangerous techniques, Caceres should be training for it and coming up with strategies to mitigate Yair's advantages. Look for this fight to be a chess match, not a wild match like most of Yair's fights. Look for Caceres to circle a lot and clinch. So, I bet on Caceres, but a smaller % of my bankroll than normal.
Also, the over/under is 2.5 rounds odds of 1.88 either way, the over looks like a deal to me since both of these guys go to a decision about 2/3 times, and my working theory is that the MMA lab strategy will focus on mitigating Yair's dangerous advantages, hence more likely to be a long fight, more circling, more sticking and moving, less getting KOd by a head kick. But MMA being MMA, and Yair being Yair, both of these bets could be lost the fist 2 minutes of the fight.