Results
This season saw excellent results with a +7.22% ROI after 821 Bets and I was pretty much on the good side of variance all season long. Even though the sample size of 800+ bets might seem big, in reality it's not as there is so much variance involved in this game and many of the individual smaller bets also depended on a similar outcome. Given the fact that previous seasons were also profitable it's safe to say that this market is still beatable. Taking a closer look into the numbers might give some clues on what is most profitale on how to slightly tweak things for next season.
| League | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Jupiler League | 734 | +6.08% |
| Belgian Teams (Europe and Cup) | 87 | +16.90% |
These numbers are line with last season and show the Champions League, Europa League and Cup matches from Belgian teams being highly profitable. It's tricky often not knowing that much about the opponents, but this seems to be even more the case for the bookmakers and everyone betting on these matches.
| Stakes | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Full | 12 | +0.32% |
| Medium | 144 | +5.51% |
| Small | 372 | +4.27% |
| Tiny | 256 | +12.83% |
| Limited | 36 | +40.38% |
I rarely bet anything with full stakes in 1 bet and not without reason as these bets have underperformed this and last year. The sample is very small though. The tiny bets have performed excellent most likely because they are usually bet when I allready have some riding on a certain side and am forced to take some extra because the odds get too good to resist. The limited bets are bets where I was unable to take the stakes I wanted. These are almost guaranteed to show very high profit and really show the difficulty difference in beating the market with really small vs somewhat bigger stakes.
| Type | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| League Pre-Game | 139 | +13.26% |
| League Live | 420 | -0.72% |
| League Corners | 175 | +15.73% |
| - | ||
| Belgian Teams Pre | 8 | +88.35% |
| Belgian Teams Live | 66 | +3.10% |
| Belgian Teams Corners | 13 | +31.87% |
While I would call myself mainly a live bettor, this season actually saw a minor loss in regular live bets in the League. Last year things were reversed with a pre-game loss and Live profit. It surely is something I will keep an eye at for next season, but I see no real reason to doubt or real concern as for now. The corners have been very consistent each year and have been highly profitable despite the bigger juice. It again shows that markets with smaller limits are more easy to beat.
| Odds | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30+ | 133 | +6.04% |
I force myself to take more of these higher odd quotes as the past has shown them to give a better return. Nothing Spectacular this season but I will keep doing this and develop my eye for these kind of high return betting opportunities.
Steemit Posts
I have made both weekly Previews and Personal Results posts in a very disciplined way without ever skipping or rushing things. This really helped me to stay sharp the entire season and to me it has been one of the biggest benefits of using Steemit because I was not able to allow myself to slack. This sometimes was a problem in the past. I will keep using Steemit in a similar way not making posts just for the sake of making posts, but posting things that mainly have a function to help myself in a style that might be enjoyable to follow and potentially educational for those who are interested.