This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.
This was an up and down week with an early big winner in the Europa League followed by a 0-6 run on saturday and ending with a 6-0 run on sunday to end up with some healthy profit after 2 losing weeks. One of the major benefits of keeping close track of your own stats is that it gives you a very good perspective. Last 160+ bets have overall been break even despite being up a massive 9.43% on the season. Very few people understand volume in betting and how much is needed to really say something about a record. Having a +3% expected ROI and go 1000 bets without making profit or even making a loss is not unusual. Quality vs Quantity is one of the most difficult questions in sports betting. When you focus on quality alone you can't get enough bets in to overcome short term variance. Finding really big edges in the market these days on top is extremely difficul. When you on the other hand go too high on quantity your average edge will drop a lot which comes along with a lot more variance where you need even more bets to overcome it. Finding this balance is a key factor to succes!
The bet that caused the biggest losing spot last weekend delivered the biggest profit this week. Opposing Zulte-Waregem late along with an over bet in the Europa League against Nice. It's a good example on how you always want to focus on lose a little / win a lot situations. It cost me 400€ last week for a potential 1132€ profit while it made a 1039€ profit this week with 400€ at risk. The under 3 in the AA Gent match lost but could easily have won as Gent as predicted had again a very hard time to break a defense and needed an avoidable penalty to break thinks open. I also hit a negative middle this week on Stvv vs Lokeren both taking the under 9.5 corners pre-game and over 10.5 corners live to see it land on 10 corners. Most bets are taken with small stakes which gives me room to take more live. The match was low in corners until Lokeren took a red card in the 27th minute. I did not want to hedge at that point as a 1-0 would kill the over bet so I waited quite late to take it and see it land on the negative middle
Week 16 Results 27 Bets | 11W-12L-04P | Staked 6291€ | +779€ Profit
Week 15 Results 29 Bets | 11W-14L-04P | Staked 6017€ | -627€ Loss
Week 14 Results 20 Bets | 06W-11L-013 | Staked 4469€ | -661€ Loss
Week 13 Results 26 Bets | 15W-10L-01P | Staked 5489€ | +318€ Profit
Week 12 Results 20 Bets | 09W-08L-03P | Staked 3805€ | +509€ Profit
Week 11 Results 28 Bets | 12W-09L-07P | Staked 5727€ | +407€ Profit
Week 10 Results 31 Bets | 17W-10L-04P | Staked 6779€ | +548€ Profit
Week 09 Results 39 Bets | 25W-10L-10P | Staked 8463€ | +3054€ Profit
Week 08 Results 41 Bets | 16W-14L-10P | Staked 9170€ | -82€ Loss
Week 07 Results 35 Bets | 21W-11L-03P | Staked 6360€ | +3354€ Profit
Week 06 Results 16 Bets | 13W-01L-02P | Staked 3180€ | +2251€ Profit
Week 05 Results 27 Bets | 10W-09L-08P | Staked 6688€ | -645€ Loss
Week 04 Results 31 Bets | 11W-15L-05P | Staked 6813€ | -1423€ Loss
Week 03 Results 26 Bets | 11W-12L-03P | Staked 4582€ | -861€ Loss
Week 02 Results 21 Bets | 12W-08L-01P | Staked 3787€ | +714€ Profit
Week 01 Results 29 Bets | 15W-13L-01P | Staked 4903€ | +1091€ Profit
Season 2017-2018 Results
446 Bets | 215W-168L-63P | Staked 92523€ | +8729€ Profit | +9.43% ROI